1. Stuck in their tracks. A good juicy political scandal may be the only way to shake Canadians out of what is becoming national political gridlock, according to EKOS pollster Frank Graves.
His latest numbers show that despite Olympic gold-medal performances, a quick and generous response to earthquake-ravaged Haiti, a stronger economy and a new Throne Speech and budget, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives cannot command more than 33 per cent of voter support.
Mr. Graves calls this “political lethargy” and says the statistical logjam is unprecedented.
“I don’t recall a period in political history of the past few decades when no party can climb above 33 points,” he says. “The reality is that no one seems capable of jump-starting a basically inert Canadian electorate.”
It has been like this for the Tories since the beginning of the year.
The EKOS survey, released today, has the Conservatives at 31.9 per cent compared to Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals at 29.6 per cent. The NDP is at 16 per cent; the Bloc Quebecois is at 9.1 per cent and Elizabeth May and her Green Party are polling at 11 per cent.
The poll of 2,467 Canadians was conducted between March 3 and March 9. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.97, 19 times out of 20.
Mr. Graves polled during the budget week, finding that Jim Flaherty’s document did not mark any “turning point politically”.
“I can’t see anything out there, except a scandal, disrupting the current logjam,” he says. “But it’s not inconceivable that we might see something close enough if the government keeps wobbling on the Afghan file.”
Indeed, since Parliament returned last week from a long winter break – the result of the Prime Minister’s decision to prorogue – the opposition has been hammering the government over allegations of torture in the transfer of Afghan prisoners.
EKOS also looked at the direction of the government: 45.5 per cent of respondents said that the government was moving in the right direction compared to 43.8 per cent who said it was going the wrong way.
Mr. Graves’s poll comes just two days after a Harris-Decima survey that showed similar results – 33 per cent support for the Conservatives compared to 29 per cent for the Liberals, 16 per cent for the NDP, 10 per cent for the Bloc and 11 per cent for the Green Party.
Mr. Graves, meanwhile, is intrigued by this apparent stalemate.
“Is it possible that we are in a holding pattern looking for a new generation of leadership? Or is the idea of a clear ruling party increasingly a pipe dream under our increasingly anachronistic first past the post system,” he says.
However, he believes that next week could be a telling one for the Conservatives as it will “augur well” for them if they can show a slight increase in their polling numbers.
An uptick would show the attacks by the opposition on everything from the budget to the Afghan detainee scandal are not registering with Canadians. “But if they see any slippage or Liberal gain then this will be a very damaging thing,” he says.
2. A poem from the Red Chamber. Manitoba Liberal Rod Zimmer paid tribute this week to his former colleague, independent Senator Marcel Prud’homme, who retired from the Red Chamber in November when he turned 75.
Mr. Prud’homme was a fixture on Parliament Hill, having first been elected to his Quebec riding in 1964; Brian Mulroney appointed the colourful Liberal to the Senate in 1993.
And so the tribute: it was not just your run-of-the mill speech. Rather, Mr. Zimmer decided to put down his thoughts about his good friend in the form of a poem. As he said in the Senate on Tuesday, he used iambic pentameter and the theme from Dr. Seuss.
The result is “Ode to Marcel.”
“Prud’homme is his name, and French by fame,
politics in life, always his game.
Liberal to the bone, and committed like stone,
thinking out of the box, always to hone.
Lean and nice, he had little vice, learned to skate
on political thin ice.”
And Senator Zimmer continues in this vein for quite a while, finally summing up:
“Honourable Senators, be proud of this Chamber,
and of this city, be an oasis, we need no pity.
Marcel says, count your blessings, and spread good cheer,
and the world will be, because you were all here!”
And Stephen Harper wants to reform the Senate?
