Stephen Harper’s rock and roll performance at the Conservative caucus Christmas party this week may just provide a needed bounce for the Tories as they go into the new year, according to EKOS pollster Frank Graves.
His latest poll, released Thursday evening and conducted before Mr. Harper took the stage, shows the Grinch has clearly stolen Christmas and put “a pox on all parties.”
Last year, the Tories received a 10-point increase in the polls after the Prime Minister’s surprise performance of a Beatles tune at the National Arts Centre gala. For now, the EKOS gives the Conservatives 33.7 per cent support compared to 29.2 per cent for Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals. Jack Layton and his New Democrats have 14.4 per cent support; the Green Party is at 10.4 per cent and the Bloc Québécois is at 9.8 per cent.
“It’s a lump of coal poll for all parties,” Mr. Graves said. “Canadians aren’t full of mirth and cheer – at least not when they think of Parliament and Ottawa.”
The results, Mr. Graves argued, suggest no majority government is in any party’s future.
The pollster is hardest on Mr. Ignatieff, saying the Liberal Leader “has managed to barely elevate himself past his predecessors standing but every time he gets close to 30 [per cent support] he seems to have his door shut in his face.”
“On the other hand he is within spitting distance of the Conservatives this year, which is way better than the 10-point gap this time last year,” Mr. Graves said. “Of course we have yet to see the huge maestro bounce that Stephen Harper will enjoy from his performance.”
But it’s the demographic breakdowns that provide the most tantalizing statistics.
For example, Mr. Graves noted that if only young Canadians – those 18 to 25 – were voting, the Green Party would be close to forming a majority government. The EKOS numbers show that 34.8 per cent of voters under 25 would support the Green Party compared to 18.2 per cent for the Conservatives, 20.9 per cent for the Liberals and 14.5 per cent for the NDP.
On the other hand, if only seniors – 65 years and older – had the vote, the Conservative Party would win more than 200 seats, Mr. Graves said. In this category, his poll reveals that 46.2 per cent of Canadians over 65 would support the Conservatives, compared to 29 per cent for the Liberals, 12.6 per cent for the NDP and 5 per cent for the Green Party.
“What a huge generational chasm we are seeing in Canada,” Mr. Graves explained. “And if we contrast these fantasy parliaments with the reality of a zero-Green-MP parliament we may understand in large measure why young Canada will once again stay largely home on election day.”
When Mr. Graves looked at regional breakdowns he found the key battleground of Ontario, including the Greater Toronto Area, is deadlocked with the Tories polling at 35 per cent compared to 34.4 per cent for the Liberals. And looking at “Metropolitan Canada,” the pollster found that in Toronto the Tories are 37.9 per cent support compared to 36.9 per cent for the Liberals.
Mr. Graves also asked Canadians what they felt were the most important election issues, finding that 37 per cent of Canadians are concerned with social issues; 33 per cent are worried about economic issues; 18 per cent are focused on fiscal issues; and 8 per cent believe issues around ethics and accountability are most important. It’s interesting to note, Mr. Graves added, that Quebeckers are the most concerned about ethics.
The poll of 2,574 voters – including a sub-sample of 2,153 decided voters – was conducted between Dec. 1 and Dec. 7. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
