Amid a raft of new polls and speculation about a snap election comes this prediction from Stephen Harper’s fomer pollster, Dimitri Pantazopoulos: There will be no ballot this year and there will be no ballot next spring.
“We are not going to have an election in 2010. It will probably be the fall of 2011,” Mr. Pantazopoulos told The Globe on Thursday. “I hold on to that belief because nothing has happened.”
Mr. Pantazopoulos is no longer polling for Mr. Harper but has a good view of politics from the right; he is still well-connected among Conservatives. He sees nothing in the latest polls that would result in any change on the political landscape.
“Nobody has anything to gain from having an election right now,” he said, noting that another “status quo” vote would only lead to the usual disruption and hand-wringing over questions of leadership and policy direction within political parties.
“And, to what end?”
Over the past week, three new national opinion polls have been released. The most recent one from Harris-Decima shows the Conservatives with a six-point lead over the Liberals; two other polls, EKOS and Ipsos Reid, had the two main parties in a virtual tie.
EKOS showed a dramatic 10 point drop by the Tories last week. Pollster Frank Graves attributed it in part to the controversy over the government’s decision to scrap the compulsory long-form census.
But Mr. Pantazopoulos dismisses most of the commentary and analysis regarding the polls as “sensationalist.” In fact, his prediction of the election being a whole year away is based in part on his belief the Tory budget next spring will be a “good news” budget, not one to provoke an election.
“I think the numbers will come in better than expected … and nobody will want to vote against it,” he said.
There are indications economic recovery is gaining strength and that Canada is in a stable position as it emerges from recession. And the Conference Board of Canada recently said the government is one year ahead of schedule in its deficit fight.
“Tell me what’s going to be in the Conservative budget in 2011 that’s going to cause the Liberals, NDP and the Bloc to be so dissatisfied that they would bring down government?” Mr. Pantazopoulos asks. “The government has set the path towards deficit reduction and anyone who criticizes it is going to have to explain what their alternative is.”
However, change comes in 2012. Mr. Pantazopoulos said no opposition party wants to allow the Harper government to brag that it served a full mandate in a minority position.
“It’s going to reach a point of no return where the opposition parties will say if we go into 2012 with this government … going to the end of their four-year mandate, we will look like total, total absolute failures.
“So they will precipitate an election in the fall of next year.”
