Prime Minister Stephen Harper is shown spending time with his own children in an pre-election ad released Feb. 28, 2011.
The odds for a spring election have increased significantly since Jim Flaherty predicted a 50-50 chance of a trip to the polls over his budget back in January. Inside the Prime Minister's Office, the odds are now 70-30, according to a well-placed source.
This is not to say Prime Minister Stephen Harper has changed his mind and wants a campaign -rather, the Tories are surmising an election is imminent given opposition manoeuvres. The view is that their rivals have ramped up the rhetoric and animus to such a point they will be unable to climb down to support next month's budget.
On Monday morning the NDP launched three pre-writ ads. The fact the party took this rare move - laying out serious money in the process - has heightened speculation Jack Layton will not be making any deals with the Conservatives to support the budget.
So, the Tories are now preparing for a campaign - but continue to emphasize they don't want one. "We're not forcing it," one Conservative MP says. "But we are not afraid of it."
The Conservatives also launched two new ads of their own Monday. They come after the Prime Minister and his team spent the Commons recess fanning out across the country announcing and re-announcing government cash for local projects - at one point sending out 80 MPs, senators and ministers in a single day.
The first new Tory ad is soft and emotional, much like a previous one featuring a solitary Prime Minister working hard in his office and burning the midnight oil. In it Mr. Harper says, with music playing the background: "We are lucky to live in Canada" - a place where people are measured on merit, not by who they know or where they come from.
Over lovely pictures of infrastructure projects, the Snowbirds flying over the Peace Tower, a Canadian flag gently waving, happy Canadians of different ethnic backgrounds, and even his own children, the Prime Minister assures that while there is still much work to be done, Canada is leading the way.
In the second ad, however, the Tories come out swinging against Michael Ignatieff and his view that $6-billion in planned corporate tax cuts should be put on hold given the massive federal deficit. The Liberal Leader and his team are portrayed as wanting to hike taxes - and if they don't get their way they will force an election.