This week Le Devoir suggested Jim Flaherty could be shuffled out of the Finance Ministry shortly, a notion that Prime Minister’s Office spokesman Dimitri Soudas is dismissing as “out in left field.” The PMO has also issued talking points for MPs refuting the idea that “Stephen Harper is thinking of giving his cards a good shuffle next month."
Be that as it may, August has occasionally served as the window of opportunity for past cabinet shuffles that rearrange the ministerial team before Parliament returns in the fall.
And, it’s worth noting that Mr. Flaherty is the only Conservative MP to stay in the same cabinet post since the government was formed in early 2006.
Why he might be ready to bow out of Finance:
1) He may not want to be the minister burdened with selling next year’s grim austerity budget to Canadians.
2) He’s finished one big task (shepherding the two-year economic stimulus plan) and there’s a natural break before the next difficult job (chopping billions from spending) is set to begin.
3) He’s finally built up a legacy of achievements that can overshadow his controversial 2006 decision to tax income trusts into the ground – a move that broke a Conservative campaign promise and angered many. Today, Mr. Flaherty can point to a series of accomplishments including the record $47.2-billion stimulus program, a long-sought national securities regulator, the disability tax credit, the new tax-free savings accounts as well as relatively successful G8 and G20 summits.
4) He’s 60 years old, has been in politics almost continuously for 15 years, and may want to build up more of a nest egg for retirement in the private sector.
5) His trusted chief of staff Derek Vanstone has left Finance to work for the Prime Minister’s Office.
Why he might want to remain in his post:
1) The threat of a double dip recession – one caused by economic forces outside Canada – may make Stephen Harper nervous about switching a tried-and-true Finance Minister right now
2) Senior Conservatives argue privately the media has exaggerated the extent of the fiscal restraint that will be required to bring Canada’s deficit under control. Should the economic outlook continue to improve, this will reduce the required cuts even more. Thus, Mr. Flaherty needn’t worry about acquiring a new political reputation as the Neutron Jack Welch of Canadian politics when he presides over Budget 2011.
3) Mr. Flaherty is the first finance minister in 38 years to preside over a slide into deficit from a surplus position. He may want to hammer out the spending restraint plan for returning Ottawa to the black in order to help rehabilitate his reputation as a fiscal hawk.
