Stephen Harper’s minority government will have governed for five years by February. But Monday’s by-elections could determine if Mr. Harper and his team can make it a record-setting six years in office.
Here’s how (it’s a lot of speculation, but it’s the chatter on the Hill Monday):
The Harper Conservatives are bullish on Vaughan and they think the NDP will win Winnipeg North in Monday’s contests. And with the Tories having a lock on the third by-election in Manitoba’s Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette, there is a view that Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff could be shut out.
If this is the case, there are predictions that the Liberals will regroup and not try to take the government down over its budget next spring – as has been expected.
“A better-than-expected result for the [Liberals] could put a little more steel in the spine of those seeking a spring election,” says EKOS pollster Frank Graves. “On the other hand, if the Liberals get smoked, then I imagine the voices of prudence and patience will hold sway.”
Patience and prudence are music to Tory ears – especially those of Mr. Harper, who loves governing. Can he make it through 2011 and govern into 2012?
“If Iggy is shut out tomorrow, we are virtually guaranteed no election until the spring of 2012,” a well-placed Conservative MP predicts.
In the suburban Toronto riding of Vaughan, star Tory candidate Julian Fantino is considered the man to beat, although the riding has been Liberal for the past 22 years.
The Tories have been working hard in the riding. Over the weekend, senior cabinet ministers – Heritage Minister James Moore and Immigration Minister Jason Kenney – and Peterborough MP Dean Del Mastro were canvassing over the weekend for Mr. Fantino, the former Toronto police chief and former Ontario Provincial Police commissioner.
The Liberals are also pushing hard. Markham MP John McCallum, a key member of the Ignatieff team, has been in the riding at least seven times, helping out Liberal candidate Tony Genco.
And in Winnipeg North, which has been a long-time NDP riding, there are some suggestions that NDP volunteers are tired after having worked hard to try to elect their former MP, NDP MP Judy Wasylycia-Leis, mayor of Winnipeg.
Despite their efforts, she was not successful. That election was just a month ago and if volunteers are tired, what does that mean for getting out the all-important vote?
Could a fatigued NDP volunteer pool benefit the Liberal or Tory candidate?
“Although in reality by-elections have little impact on the subsequent national election , they do have profound impacts on party morale,” Mr. Graves says. “This includes the perception of winnability, motivation of workers and volunteers, fundraising and confidence in the leader.”
