After two weeks of election campaigning, the news is less than cheery for NDP Leader Jack Layton.
The Nanos Research Leadership Index, a daily tracking of voter attitudes toward the party leaders based on questions of trust, competence and vision, continues to show Conservative Leader Stephen Harper well ahead of his opponents, with a consistent score around or above 100. On April 7 the score was 106, though individual results matter much less with daily polls than trends over time.
Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff and Mr. Layton are tied at 47, though what matters here is that over the past week, Mr. Ignatieff's score has remained essentially unchanged.
But since the campaign began, Mr. Layton's leadership scores have fallen, risen, and then fallen again.
This decline in confidence in Mr. Layton's leadership is also tentatively reflected in overall support for the three parties.
While the Conservatives remain about 10 percentage points ahead of the Liberals, as they have been through much of this election campaign, there is some indication that support for the NDP is on the wane.
As of Thursday, the Tories enjoyed 40.6 per cent support nationally, the Liberals were at 31.1 per cent, while the NDP were at 14.9 per cent – a low point in Mr. Layton's campaign so far.
Pollster Nik Nanos speculated that Ontario voters who want to block Mr. Harper's attempts to win a majority government may be shifting to the Liberals.
Though the margin of error is higher in regional breakdowns, they show the Liberals within seven points of the Tories in Ontario (38 per cent versus 45 per cent), while the NDP has fallen steadily (to 11 per cent). The situation is similar in Atlantic Canada, though the NDP remain more competitive in Quebec and British Columbia.
"It will be critical to monitor this to see if this represents a possible change in the shape of the horse race," Mr. Nanos observed.
Critical also will be the performance of all three leaders in the two debates scheduled for next week.
John Ibbitson