Supporters of federal Human Resources Minister Diane Finley are testing the waters for a possible run for the leadership of Ontario's Progressive Conservatives, raising a new prospect that family ties from the provincial race could make waves in Stephen Harper's Conservative Party in Ottawa.
At the same time, Ontario Provincial Police Commissioner Julian Fantino has called some Ontario Tory organizers to see if he would have support if he ran, Conservative insiders say.
Neither has yet mounted the kind of organized team that front-runner Tim Hudak has set in place to replace John Tory.
But a bid by Ms. Finley, whose husband Doug Finley is Mr. Harper's powerful campaign manager, would add a new wrinkle to a provincial contest that holds the potential to create rifts among federal Tories.
Christine Elliott, the MPP for Whitby-Ajax and wife of Federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, is already lining up a campaign. Ms. Finley's entry would raise the prospect of federal Conservatives from Ontario squeezed between two power couples.
"Talk about the battle of the spouses," said one organizer who had been contacted by supporters of Ms. Finley.
Ms. Finley is not as well known in provincial party circles as are some federal MPs, but her status as an unscarred federal minister would make her a serious entry, the Tory said, and her husband's reputation as an effective campaign tactician would add organizing weight.
A spokesman for Ms. Finley played down talk she might run.
"While Minister Finley is very flattered by the suggestion, she herself has said that her only priority right now is to the Conservative Government as Minister of Human Resources and Skills Development to help deliver [the federal budget]" Julie Vaux said in an e-mail.
Even before they officially launch bids, campaign teams, including that of Mr. Hudak, the MPP for Niagara West-Glanbrook, are trying to line up endorsements from federal MPs and cabinet ministers.
Backing from figures such as Transport Minister John Baird and Health Minister Tony Clement, both former Ontario MPPs, could help sway party members.
Federal Conservatives might worry that their endorsement could put them on the wrong side of an Ottawa heavyweight, however.
Mr. Flaherty, as Finance Minister, can influence most public projects that an MP supports. At Human Resources, Ms. Finley has less cross-government sway, but as campaign manager, Mr. Finley makes key decisions over campaign strategy and resources that can affect a politician's re-election chances.
At a caucus meeting last week, the Prime Minister warned his MPs not to let the Ontario race create rifts in the federal party.
In Ontario Conservative circles, Ms. Finley would face a party wary of any leadership candidate who does not have a seat at Queen's Park, the provincial legislature. Mr. Tory's efforts to run the party from outside the legislature ended in debacle. He lost a safe seat in a by-election March 5.
Another federal minister, Public Safety Minister Peter Van Loan, gauged support for his own leadership bid last week, but backed off after finding a candidacy from outside the Queen's Park caucus would get a cool response, according to several insiders.
Some Conservative organizers said they believe Commissioner Fantino has found the same reaction. But one Tory called by Commissioner Fantino said that in a contest that will be decided by a grassroots vote, rather than delegates, the commissioner could mount a candidacy based on recruiting new members who want a leader from outside the caucus and who like his law-and-order background.
Campbell Clark