Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff takes questions after speaking to a luncheon audience hosted by the Saint John Board of Trade on Aug. 13, 2009.Noel Chenier/The Canadian Press
With the Liberal caucus meeting in Sudbury, election speculation will inevitably be in the air. What else is new?
What's new - relative to speculation back in the spring, at least - were the words last week of Senator David Smith, debunking the notion that the Liberals would provoke an election on EI. What's also new is why the good Senator made his statements: The Liberals received disquieting poll results in Québec last week. And it seems they also heard about some negative developments in Ontario from their provincial cousins, as Susan Delacourt reports:
Last week, in a closed-door presentation in Toronto, dozens of Ontario Liberal MPPs were treated to a presentation by Pollara president Don Guy, in which they reportedly learned it's been a good summer for Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the Conservative "brand."… From this, some provincial Liberals inferred it hasn't been that great a summer for federal leader Michael Ignatieff - and that this fall may not be the best time to have an election.
Aside from demonstrating a fine sense of political realism, Senator Smith showed the wisdom that comes with experience. Today, Mr. Guy will present the bad polling news to the federal Liberal caucus. However, notwithstanding the Senator's cold-shower statement, the Official Opposition retains the option of bringing down the government any time it chooses. Yet, in the short term, the statement takes the pressure off Michael Ignatieff to pull the plug in September or risk being "Dionized" by his political opponents and the media alike.
The Liberals are fortunate to have old warriors like David Smith, co-chair of their next election campaign, in the Senate. And it's entirely understandable that Stephen Harper would appoint Conservative partisans to join him there. Not to achieve senate reform, as he and some of his supporters pretend: senators have no constitutional veto over reform of the Upper House. Nor can the partisan appointments be justified on the basis that the Liberals have done the same thing in the past, though who can deny it?
However, it is fair to say that a Conservative majority, when achieved, will ensure that the government's legislation cannot be blocked in the undemocratic Red Chamber - which cannot be abolished and would be virtually impossible to reform. And the appointment of Conservative hacks to compete with Senator Smith will increase the odds that the Conservatives will eventually gain that majority in the Red Chamber. The unattractive alternative to Stephen Harper's course of action - Canada becoming a one-party Liberal state - was the direction in which we were headed before Mr. Harper re-entered politics and united the centre-right.