A very smart lawyer and politico reminded me of the most critical fact that will determine the outcome of the current crisis: to prorogue the House, the Prime Minister must pass an Order-in-Council.
This gets a little technical, but bear with me. It will be very important, very soon.
It has become obvious that Prime Minister Harper has lost the confidence of a majority of the MPs.
He has already delayed a vote of confidence by one week, a move consistent with Parliamentary convention and perfectly reasonable given the gravity of the matter.
However, barring a major change in the mood of the opposition, it is likely Mr. Harper will lose his first test of confidence next Monday.
To avoid that fate, the Prime Minister has been rumoured to be considering proroguing Parliament and delaying its return until the January 27th budget.
Such a move fulfills three strategic objectives.
First, it avoids the defeat of his government on the confidence motion.
Second, it allows almost two months to pass during which the Conservatives can use television advertising to attempt to make the costs of a coalition government supported by the Bloc Quebecois so high for the Liberals and/or NDP that they back off and support the government on a subsequent confidence motion.
Third, it brings Parliament back to hear a budget that would likely be the reverse of last week's economic statement: long on economic stimulus, short on partisan politics, and with more robust accounting of the true state of the books.
But would it pass?
To be legal, an Order-in-Council in Canada requires the approval of the federal Cabinet and the assent of the Queen's representative, the Governor General.
Typically, such assent is a formality. The government has the confidence of Parliament and the Governor General is simply a figurehead.
But what if the government demonstrably does not have the support of Parliament?
What if the Governor General has received a letter signed by a majority of the MPs in the Commons stating they have lost confidence in the government?
Would the Governor General then grant prorogation on the basis of the government's authority?
Or would the Governor General demand that the government first test its confidence in the Commons before it may exercise its privilege to order prorogation?
This, it strikes me, is the fundamental question facing the federal government.
