I am a firm believer that you can best understand politics through the lens "where you stand depends on where you sit."
The about-face this week by the Harper Conservatives on equal representation for Ontario falls firmly in this category.
When Peter Van Loan was smearing Dalton McGuinty as the "small man of Confederation" for daring to stand up for Ontario, the Conservatives were married to limited growth in representation for Ontario.
The Harper government was desperate to avoid Quebec losing too large a proportional share of the seats in the Commons.
Pro forma arguments were made about fueling separatism, but the real reason was always electoral mathematics.
Ontario was the base of the Liberal Party of Canada, a long-time fortress famous for electing all but one of their MPs from the Liberals on more than one recent occasion.
Quebec was the great hope for the Harper PMO, a mythical and mysterious land rich in winnable seats. Party grandees chortled that all they needed to do was hitch their wagon to Mario Dumont and the ADQ and a majority would be theirs.
Over the past three months, that farce was laid to rest.
First the Conservative campaign tanked in Quebec, smothered by incompetent Quebec organizers and a platform far to the right of the Quebec mainstream on issues like crime, culture and the environment.
Second, the ADQ was demolished in the provincial election, and Mario Dumont cast out of the leadership.
Finally, the Conservatives positioned the proposed Liberal-NDP coalition as an unholy cabal with the dreaded "separatists," a move that went over in Quebec about as well as conscription. Like the slamming of a door made after losing an argument, this entire episode was about resentment at past failures to woo Quebec nationalists released in a fury of noise.
Now that their hopes of major inroads in Quebec are over, the only place a Conservative majority can be cobbled together will be Ontario.
Ontario elected eleven more Conservatives in 2008, the majority of the improvement over 2006.
While new seats will be added to the Liberal bedrock in the City of Toronto, the area with the largest overall growth with be the 905 region, particularly the outer GTA where the population has been booming and the Conservative messages of competent management and lower taxes have found a receptive audience.
The real bonus for the Conservatives is this: new seats do not have an incumbent to defeat. While incumbency is not the massive advantage it is in the U.S. Congress, it still is a noticeable edge to run the sitting member rather than an outsider. Introducing 21 open seats in Ontario may be enough to get the Conservatives over the top.
All of this adds up to optimistic new electoral mathematics for the federal Conservatives: Ontario + 21 more seats = majority.
Perhaps the old adage should be "where you stand depends on where you need the seats."
