Ontario Liberals are walking around with big smiles today.
It looks increasingly like someone took pity on John Tory and will step aside.
Unfortunately, instead of one of his 60-something male backbenchers retiring, Tory appears to be sacrificing the career of a promising young woman MPP on the altar of his own increasingly frail ambitions.
That's not the only thing he is sacrificing. At a time when profligacy should be the watchword for the Progressive Conservatives, Tory gives up the efficiency card by causing another $500,000 by-election.
Actually, if you add up the costs in the last few years from PC leaders needing a seat, you find that internal PC Party politics cost Ontario taxpayers more than $2,000,000.
- David Tilson's severance to make room for Ernie Eves – about $100,000
- Byelection to find Eves a seat in Dufferin-Grey-Wellington-Peel – $500,000
- Eves's severance to make room for John Tory – about $100,000
- Byelection to find Tory a seat in Dufferin-Grey-Wellington-Peel – $500,000
- Tory's severance when defeated in the last election – about $60,000
- Laurie Scott's severance to make room for John Tory – about $100,000
- Byelection to find Tory a seat in HKLB – $500,000
- A job for Laurie Scott - $150,000
Total: $2,010,000
Far from the end of Tory's "grueling 15-month quest," this is only the second step in the process.
Now a number of new variables open up.
First, Tory will have to be away from Queen's Park for the vast majority of the byelection and run up period. And while the cat is away, the mice will play. The leader's absence leaves the field open for both the government to communicate with minimal opposition and for rivals to spread their poison.
Second, there is no guarantee the Liberals will call the byelection quickly. Certainly, to delay unreasonably would be capricious and allow Tory to regain some sympathy from his team. But it is not without precedent. In 2000, Mike Harris waited until literally the last legal day to call a byelection near Hamilton, knowing that he was going to lose a previously safe seat in that debacle.
Third, if the Liberals were truly malevolent, they would appoint another sitting Conservative MPP to a prestigious position. This would force the Conservatives to defend two safe seats simultaneously, splitting their resources and exacerbating internal divisions. Imagine the feeling of local PCs in Brockville or Collingwood when they are told by the leader's office that not only are they on their own in the byelection, but any donations to their effort through the party office are being redirected to John Tory's race.
Fourth, the byelection will possibly be under way during the PC Party policy convention in Niagara Falls. This leaves Tory in the unappetizing position of dividing his resources between his byelection battle – which he must win to survive – and organizing delegates for the party meeting – which he also must survive. It will also take Tory out of the riding during a critical weekend of campaigning.
Finally, in all probability, Tory will win the byelection and survive the AGM wounded, but alive.
Then he is the leader of a badly divided party where around half of the members want him to leave and the other half are lukewarm at best in their support.
His caucus is mostly uninspiring and sulking.
His reputation remains tattered.
His political judgment – the fundamental reason he lost in 2007, not to mention why he ran attack ads on Chretien's disability in a federal election or accepted the endorsement of Craig Bromell in the Toronto mayoral race – is no better.
His pallet of policy options remains flabby and contradictory.
His staff is inexperienced and unremarkable.
And he has to spend four days a week in Toronto in the Legislature instead of on the road rebuilding the grassroots.
Is it any wonder the Liberals are smiling today?
