Tuesday's budget was a major victory for Ontario, but left Quebec Premier Jean Charest sputtering.
This continues to reinforce that the political calculators in the PMO finally decided Quebec was not going to secure their majority, and that the only road to victory is through the 905 region around Toronto. At the same time, the Ignatieff Liberals are finding Quebec fertile ground for their leader.
Adam Radwanski bemoaned this week that the next election would be fought on personality rather than policy because of the consensus on fiscal issues. But this only opens up the possibility of a major split on the other great pole of Canadian politics.
We could see a major repositioning of the two federalist parties on the “national question” in the next election.
Long the federalist hardliners, the Liberals might be tempted to move to a more conciliatory position vis a vis Quebec.
Their new Quebec Lieutenant, Denis Coderre, long advocated flexibility as the best strategy to woo sovereignists to the Liberal standard. With the Bloc prostrate intellectually and devoid of a raison d'etre, there is a major opportunity for the Grits in Quebec.
At the same time, the Conservatives may find themselves having to mollify their base – distraught over financial heresy – with the heady elixir of English-Canadian nationalism.
If they cannot maintain their coalition through a fiscal contrast against the Liberals, they may be forced to play the “anti-Quebec” sentiment card.
The purchase the Conservatives found in attacking the coalition for its partnership with the BQ will fuel a re-examination of utility of the hard-line on Quebec.
Yes, the Albertans who run the CPC remain ideologically and emotionally anti-Ottawa and anti-centralization in their automatic responses - feelings picked up during the NEP. But the reality of holding together an increasingly fractious coalition will drive an increasing reliance on the “Captain Canada” button to survive everything from budget votes to riding association meetings.
Don't be surprised if the political heat over the next year begins to revolve more and more around Quebec's place in Confederation, and if the Red and Blue teams are on the opposite sides of the argument from where you are used to seeing them.
