I have never met a politician with an eye for a photo op like Jim Watson. He could make the valuation of an annuity into something with razzle-dazzle (and probably a commemorative mug).
Running for mayor of the larger, post-amalgamation City of Ottawa is a smart move for this Merlin of media.
Watson is a born mayor. He loves the churn of events that are any mayor’s bread and butter. He also has the kind of vision, integrity and drive that is critical in any CEO, be they private sector or public.
Considering the challenges facing the incumbent and Watson’s sky-high name recognition and fundraising ability, I would hazard Mr. Watson as an odds-on favourite in November.
There has been some whispering that Watson’s move is a sign of something fishy in the Kingdom of McGuinty.
The reality is much more normal. Cabinets change. That’s a fact of life.
First, cabinet ministers tend to have a relatively short shelf-life. Politicians with 20 years on the front bench – like Bob Welch or Herb Gray – are few and far between.
For instance in the Harris administration, his front bench in 1995 to 1997 was Ernie Eves at Finance, Jim Wilson at Health, John Snobelen at Education, Dave Johnson at Management Board and David Tsubouchi at Community and Social Services.
Just a few years later, the Harris front bench was Jim Flaherty at Finance, Tony Clement at Health, Janet Ecker at Education, Liz Witmer at Environment and Chris Hodgson at Municipal Affairs. Only the last two were even in Harris’s first cabinet.
That Harris example actually shows that – in some cases – cabinets improve over time as ministers get more experienced and the cream rises to the top.
Second, this is happening across the country.
In Ottawa, Stephen Harper lost five front-benchers in 2008 alone (Emerson, Solberg, Hearn, Bernier and Fortier). I would note that no one painted their departures as a knock on the Prime Minister.
Third, if the caliber of Liberal candidates were declining, this story line might make sense. Instead, the Liberals recently attracted top-notch talent to run for them.
Glen Murray fits anyone’s definition of a “star candidate” and I hear rumours that the candidate the Liberals will run in Ottawa is equally impressive.
Fourth, it’s hard to suggest these decisions are being driven primarily by challenges at Queen’s Park.
For the Liberals to be four points up in Ontario after the year they had, as Ipsos Reid found in December, is a startling display of the political buoyancy McGuinty still enjoys.
(I still expect the Liberals to spend a significant time behind in the polls before the next election, which made this latest result all the more shocking.)
Fifth, success at the municipal level helps create success at the federal and provincial levels.
The NDP has been very good at using municipal offices to create viable candidates for MP and MPP. Those on the right are always able to draw on a laundry list of municipal reeves and mayors to run at the higher orders of government.
The possibility of Liberal mayors in Ontario’s two biggest cities will solidify the red base in Ontario’s urban centres, allowing the federal and provincial parties to focus more on suburban and rural candidate grooming and organization. Just as Smitherman’s mayoral candidacy is luring Ken Chan back to run, creating potentially another future MPP or MP, Watson will be free to build a stronger Liberal machine in Ottawa.
(Photo: Jim Watson greets Dalton McGuint during a campaign stop on Sept. 6, 2003. Jonathan Hayward/The Canadian Press)
