There is a growing theory that a majority is not possible for Stephen Harper in this election because his argument against a Liberal-NDP-Bloc coalition will undermine him in Quebec.
Chantal Hebert puts forth the idea with insight and verve here.
But turning the Conservatives from the provincialist party to the Canadian nationalist party is hardly a losing proposition.
In the days after the last election, I argued that this was exactly the strategy they should pursue to create a durable Conservative Party of Canada. The alternative, the Mulroney alliance of Western So-Cons, Ontario Fiscal-Cons and Quebec nationalists was always doomed to be a boom and bust alternative to the Liberals, rather than the natural governing party of Canada.
“If [the Conservatives] are to build a durable coalition, they must adjust their position on the National Question either in Quebec or outside it. Theoretically, Mr. Harper could attempt to mimic the Liberal coalition by moving both sets of supporters closer to the middle ground. But the Tories' base in English Canada is large, powerful and unlikely to moderate on this fundamental question.
The surer course is to capture the federalist pole from the Liberals in Quebec. This might mean fewer seats in Quebec in the short-term, but it would form a solid intellectual foundation that could be maintained for generations. This position would have coherence - pro-Canada in both Quebec and the rest of the country - as opposed to being contradictory, like the existing coalition of 'francophones and Francophobes.'”
Mr. Harper didn’t read the above and say “Eureka!” Rather, he fell into this strategy during the Coalition Crisis when he was forced to hammer the “separatist” button to survive. Astonished by the popular support that surged against the coalition proposal, Mr. Harper realized the power of nationalism.
Let’s recall, the polls after the crisis demonstrate how miserably unpopular the idea of a Liberal-NDP coalition with support from the Bloc was.
Harper could make a single argument in the looming election of “Harper or the Separatists (or sometimes Socialists)” in an attempt to polarize the electorate and goose the Conservative vote in English Canada.
Mr. Ignatieff has taken some strong steps to inoculate himself to this charge, but it remains to be seen if any type of inoculation will work. Clearly, the Conservative party is not taking yes for an answer, running ads charging Mr. Ignatieff of plotting a “reckless coalition” despite his pleas of innocence.
Generally speaking, this strategy is reminiscent of Dalton McGuinty’s polarization strategy around religious school funding. It is an attempt to turn the election from a referendum on the government or a multiplicity of issues into a single ballot question of “Harper or the Separatists and their Liberal-NDP allies.”
Harper could hammer the point again and again and again until it’s the only thing people are talking about. It should drown out issues like the deficit, Afghanistan or the economy where there is a broad consensus that no party wants to take a risky position outside rhetorical generalities. If executed properly, it could force Ignatieff and Layton completely on the defensive in English Canada.
The polling taken immediately after the coalition crisis showed a huge swing to the Conservatives. If they can replicate that swing in part or in whole, there is a major opening for the Conservatives to flip seats to their column.
Let’s consider how that kind of strategy might play out in English Canada first.
First, we will make the assumption that the Conservatives will lose no English Canadian seats with this strategy. This may be false. Conservative-held Ontario seats with a significant francophone population like Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry could be in trouble if the “anti-Separatist” rhetoric moves to “anti-Quebec” and then “anti-French” in perception.
However, I will try to balance this with the broad assumption that Conservatives will not beat Liberal incumbents in Toronto, using this strategy or any other. Ontario was second to Alberta in opposition to the coalition, so it’s not impossible to conceive of a seat like Don Valley West or Scarborough Southwest shifting, albeit really unlikely.
So where is movement possible?
The fact is that the NDP are hitting above their weight currently, and are the party with the most vulnerable new incumbents for the Conservatives to target.
