This is the greatest day for Toronto since Rene Lesveque was elected Premier of Quebec in 1976.
Then, the threat of independence drove Montreal’s financial community and dozens of head offices down the 401, making Toronto Canada’s biggest and richest city.
Now, the left-leaning mayor of Toronto is calling it quits after two terms of dithering and photo ops.
David Miller’s admission that he will not be seeking a third term as mayor of Toronto is slightly surprising.
The business community and centre-right politicos have been wishing this for years, but it was never a sure thing.
A year is a lifetime in politics. Dismal polls can turn around. Long-term projects can sprout results. The oft-hyped Toronto NDP machine might have been able to engineer a victory against a divided centre-right.
But Miller clearly looked at the next year and the following term and saw only misery.
Toronto faces a dire budget shortfall in the winter that will require draconian measures.
His relationship with former supporters was critically injured by the recent strike.
The city will simply never be able to sustain itself without a massive rebalancing of its assets, costs and revenues.
A third-term mayor who squeaks in between multiple opponents would not have the mandate to change anything, particularly if he was beholden to regressive forces like CUPE and the city bureaucracy for his victory.
In stepping aside, Miller has done the city a great favour. It gives an opportunity for the next election to be about competing visions of what Toronto should be, rather than a debate about the past.
The only thing that is clear from here is that this opens the floodgates to a massive list of potential candidates.
Previously, the conventional wisdom was that the centre-right could only back a single candidate for fear of splitting the vote against the incumbent from the left.
That all changes with Miller out of the race.
Suddenly, the argument that was keeping the big backroom players on the right relatively united is gone. They will likely scatter to the wind and try to find a horse.
Clearly, deputy premier George Smitherman and former PC leader John Tory have the room to run.
City councilor Karen Stintz would be wise to throw her hat in the ring in the hopes that Tory or Smitherman falters.
Other right-leaning councilors like Denzil Minnan-Wong and Michael Thompson may have the opportunity to go as well.
And a brand new contest will erupt on the left.
Who does the NDP caucus at City Hall rally around? Adam Giambrone? Sandra Bussin? Shelley Carroll? Is it even possible to unite after the fractious CUPE strike? Will one faction rally to CUPE while the others remain loyal to the Miller deal?
Do the greens run a candidate like Gord Perks or Glen De Baeremaeker, or do they stay folded in behind the NDP?
Does leftish city councilor Adam Vaughn attempt to run as an outsider, against the NDP establishment?
It is entirely possible that we could see a replay of 2003, with four, five or even six serious candidates on the ballot.
Likely, we will see the same electoral behaviour as in 2003 as well. A large field will winnow to just two contenders in the final weeks when voters actually start to pay attention. If they both run, this will almost certainly be Smitheman and Tory.
The most immediate impact of Miller’s decision to step down is on NDP city councilors.
Prior to this, most right-of-centre organizers were focused on bringing down Miller. Without the mayor’s office, city council was perceived as worthless.
Now that the big chair is almost definitely out of the NDP’s hands, the focus for some will shift to vulnerable NDP incumbents on council, from Pam McConnell to Janet Davis.
The future is still very uncertain, but one thing is clear. People who are looking for a change will get one.
