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Robert Silver

Bloc's demise is Tory saviour? Add to ...

Adam Daifallah has an interesting piece in today's Post. He uses a big hook right up-front to get his reader's attention:

"In Montreal political circles, rumours have intensified in recent days that Gilles Duceppe is planning to resign as leader of the Bloc Quebecois before Parliament resumes. If he were to do so, the federal political dynamic would be redrawn in Quebec and the door would be thrown wide open for the Harper Conservatives to stage a comeback."

Not being immersed in Montreal political circles, I can only take Adam's word that these rumours are in fact intensifying.

Without going through all of Adam's piece, one line does jump out at me that goes to his central thesis that if Duceppe leaves, Harper will benefit:

"Bloc voters are more likely to go to the Conservatives than to the Liberals as a second choice."

From the Ekos poll (PDF) of two weeks ago (with 2,450 total respondents) asking Bloc supporters their second choice support:

29% NDP

26.2% Liberal

20.8% No second choice

15.1% Green Party

8.9% Conservative Party of Canada

Ya, any fair reading of these numbers could only lead one to conclude that if Duceppe leaves that Harper is poised to sweep the province.

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