On Saturday, Michael Ignatieff held the unofficial launch of his ballyhooed summer tour with events at the Calgary Stampede. For the Liberal Leader, how well this all turns out may be a defining point in his career in politics.
It’s not likely a tour like this, in the heat of summer, will "move the numbers." But most Liberals will be hoping for evidence Mr. Ignatieff can do three things convincingly: stand up to the physical demands of an election-style tour, make enthusiastically positive impressions with the people he meets and deliver a clear, compelling and consistent message.
In every election I've observed, there have been leaders whose performance is deeply affected by the vigorous pace demanded of them. For some, fatigue starts to lower the passion level in their speeches, make them vulnerable to mistakes and worst of all, make them react petulantly when things, as they inevitably will, don't go according to plan. But for every one of those examples, I can think of others in the opposite direction: where a brutal pace has a boot-camp effect, turning someone with average stump skills into a sharper and more powerful performer. How Mr. Ignatieff stands up to this test will be one of the more interesting pieces of information to emerge from this summer.
The second big question: Will more people like Mr. Ignatieff, the more they see of him? The Liberal Leader has argued that his opponents painted an unflattering picture of his personality and that he has to overcome the job they have done on him. But this reality comes with a silver lining: When expectations are set the way they have been, it becomes newsworthy when a leader shows charm, likeability and charisma. Mr. Ignatieff's "unfiltered" tour will reveal whether he has the potential to turn Stephen Harper's campaign against his personality into an advantage, by proving that it is not only inaccurate but a further sign of an excessively partisan Prime Minister.
Finally, the Liberals desperately need a mantra. Mr. Ignatieff needs to be known for having an interesting worldview and a command of the granular political issues in the country. Sharp-edged language, pitch-perfect delivery and repetition to the point of revulsion will need to be the order of every day. (As one old adage has it, "when you are as sick to death as you can possibly be with your stump speech, it is probably just starting to have an impact on voters".)
On this point, Saturday looks like a shaky start. Mr. Ignatieff talked about Conservative over-spending, freezing corporate taxes, every Canadian needing a fair chance and three core challenges (learning and innovation, health care, and Canada's global leadership). On the same day, Liberal defence critic Ujjal Dosanjh put out a press release criticizing the Conservatives for sole-sourcing a $16-billion aircraft purchase. To my eyes, that's too many messages, and some so colorless it would be easy for voters to disregard them as political wallpaper. A quick review of media coverage suggested virtually none of this landed – the most prominent story featured Mr. Ignatieff saying that being Liberal leader was like riding a bucking bronco, and the good news was he was still hanging on.
