Convincing voters to switch horses midstream is no easy task for Hudak

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The adage that governments defeat themselves is almost always true. If people aren't broadly fed up with incumbents, challengers rarely prevail. There are a number of reasons for this – including that angry people turn out and vote while disappointed people are tempted to stay home on Election Day.

For a challenger to win, other than by riding a wave of anger, they have a steep hill to climb: convincing people that they can win and would accomplish something popular. That only they could do. All tough tests.

As the Ontario election kicks off, it's too soon to know how it will turn out, but its not too soon to know what to watch for. From what I'm seeing in our polls, there are two critical factors to keep an eye on.

First, is the question of how much anger there is – or isn't – toward Dalton McGuinty's government. In his prominent new TV ad, the Premier acknowledges what the polls reveal: not everybody's elated with his performance, and he's not universally popular.

But many of the voters who are less than elated are also less than convinced that the time is right to change governments. And those who do want a change don't all agree on what kind of change they want.

The NDP vote stands at 24 per cent in the last two weeks. Not high enough to win, but plenty high enough to play a spoiler role. An elevated NDP vote can cost the Liberals, but it also isn't great news for the Progressive Conservatives because it represents a splitting of the "change" sentiment.

Our polling also shows that if this election turns out to be only about scandalous spending and high taxes, (the kindling of most campaigns that are dominated by anger) Tim Hudak will assume office as premier next month.

But if it's about education, health, or the economy, there are a fair number of voters who think the Liberals might be the better choice, all things considered. As of now, comparatively few voters really know Mr. Hudak, let alone what he would do differently or better.

By no means should anyone assume that this campaign won't matter: the Liberals are vulnerable and voting intentions have been soft and pliable. But the voting intention question, which feels more like "are you happy with your government" outside of campaign periods, now comes across as "do you want to switch governments."

This is a tougher test for challengers, especially in a world where turmoil feels too omnipresent, and people crave a bit more stability. An interesting election has really only begun.