Be careful what you predict. Yes, in all modesty I must confess: I did , in this very space only weeks ago, confidently announce that an election would take place in May. I scoffed at fellow bloviators who fussed, as recently as the very morning of the budget, that Stephen Harper was angling to win NDP support. With all his many Achilles’ heels – you might say it’s an Achilles body – the PM knows his chances for a majority are as good now as they’re ever likely to be. So the game is on. Whoopee!
Actually, I can barely keep my eyes open long enough to write this. The thought that this poor old nation must endure its fourth election in seven years is almost too much to endure. The media will drench us in electoral politics, drown us in it. There will be second-by-second news that is not new and endless revelations by the punditocracy that reveal nothing. (I fear I’ll be among them, but will try to restrain myself.) Fortunately, based on the last umpteen campaigns, we can rest assured that the large majority of Canadians will pay little attention to all the hot air until the very end of the interminable campaigning, and maybe not even then. At the rate we’ve been going, most Canadians may not even bother voting – unless they finally get a reason to do so.
What can we expect of the various campaigns?
The Greens may re-materialize under Elizabeth May, MIA. After running a strong campaign in 2008, vindicating those of us who called for her to appear on the leaders’ debates, Ms. May promptly disappeared. Since climate change remains one of the world’s greatest crises – I will refrain from insulting readers by pointing out the tragic evidence – this campaign needs her very badly.
The Liberals continue to have a huge problem. Their leader simply doesn’t fit in the Barnum & Bailey world of politics. He can’t do indignation convincingly. He can’t be brazen. He can’t fake sincerity. His attempts at humour are embarrassing. You’d think after sitting across from Stephen Harper, Jason Kenney and John Baird all these years, their capacity for shamelessness might have seeped into him, if only by osmosis. But no. This brilliant man finally found a stage where he remains a rank amateur. Mr. Harper knows that. It’s exactly why we’re having this election. Oh yes, one more thing. Michael Ignatieff is also burdened by mostly agreeing with Mr. Harper's policies.
For the NDP, this is the moment when Jack Layton must raise big issues, speak big truths and take the honourable gamble that Canadians are ready listen to the truth about our real problems: growing inequality, a declining middle class, the precariousness of daily life for millions of Canadians (including Mr. Harper's beloved immigrant communities), the need for vast infrastructure expenditures so that our kids have a viable country to grow up in, and of course climate change. This will admittedly take major new funding, but if the wealthy and their corporations actually paid the taxes they should much of that funding would be available. But not all. If we really want a better Canada, we will have to pay for it. Tell it the way it is, Jack. People need to know.
