John Tory shakes hands with George Smitherman after interviewing him at CFRB radio in Toronto on Nov 9, 2009.Charla Jones/The Globe and Mail
Heart-felt congratulations to John Tory, who will be the new chair of the Toronto City Summit Alliance.
Tory's earnest approach is a great fit for the voluntary position, where he will be able to focus on issues like integrating New Canadians into the city fabric.
Toronto's civil society took a terrible loss with the untimely passing of David Pecault last month. Tory stepping in Pecault's shoes as City Summit Alliance chair should help fill some of that void in the city's fabric.
It's not inconceivable that Tory, if he performs as expected at the City Summit Alliance, could become on of the "best mayors we never had."
Today provides the latest in a long string of changes in the dramatis personae of this campaign.
What initially looked like a "David Miller vs. Karen Stintz" contest in the spring of 2009 became a "Miller vs. Tory" contest when the former PC leader left Queen's Park. George Smitherman's musings about running made it a three-way contest, which quickly became a "Smitherman vs. Tory" match when the incumbent announced he would not seek re-election in September.
Remember, this contest is a simple "First Past the Post" race for the most votes. One more than the second place challenger makes you the winner. Appealing to the same segment of voters as someone else dilutes your votes and makes it harder to win.
With Tory out, Smitherman owns the centre of the field, with multiple challengers on his left and right. It also becomes much easier for him to raise money, and harder for the others.
Clearly, this speeds up the timing for the "Orange Primary." With the left increasingly crowded by Joe Pantalone, Adam Giambrone and Shelley Carroll, one of those three will have to consolidate the NDP/union organization behind them and force the other two out. Splitting the left would mean no one of the three Miller-ites could win.
On the right, there is some room now, although it's not clear how much. Giorgio Mammoliti is already in the race as a right-of-centre populist candidate. One or more right-leaning councilors might choose to test the waters, but fundraising is going to be a real issue as a middle-of-the-pack challenger against an established and plausible centrist front-runner like Smitherman. As such, there may be need for a Blue primary just like the Orange one.
What is really interesting is the impact this has on Rocco Rossi.
The centre is already very crowded, but there is some opening in the territory John Tory just exited. Rocco has fundraising capacity but no public image, which gives him freedom of movement. The smart move is for Rocco to try to become the Great Right Hope. With all the other changes in the complexion of this contest, "Right-wing Rocco" would hardly be the biggest surprise so far.
(In aide of full disclosure, I am actively volunteering my time for George Smitherman, who is a personal friend of long standing.)
(Photo: Tory shakes hands with Smitherman after interviewing him at CFRB radio in November. Charla Jones/The Globe and Mail)