At this point, to suggest that Michael Ignatieff is having a lousy week would be equivalent to suggesting Nixon was having a crap time of it the week they released the "smoking gun" tape. Last spring, the odds on poll numbers turning to show Ig in total free fall among middle-aged women would have run as long as the chances that Harper would lose support among middle-aged oil executives. At any rate, to quote Conrad Black: "we have the verdicts we have." So what now? Yesterday, in light of the Prime Minister going all Ringo, I asked a regular correspondent what he saw as the effect.
"Well, Steve-o hit a homerun. This will be marked as the moment when he effectively reversed stereotypes, re-established his personal mojo; and the timing and the execution could not have been more deadly for Mr.Iffy.
The nightmare scenario now is a Parliament with a strong Tory minority with the Lib/NDP total way too small to make a claim, and a strengthened Bloc. Say C149, L69 , N35 , B55. At that point coalition scenario is hard, minority is unstable [again]and kneecapping any visiting MP would win wide support among Canadians.
And, of course, with these poll numbers we are now well within Tory majority territory. In which case all three opposition leaders quit and we are into a whole new chapter.
Who said Canadian politics was dull!"
Oh dear. And here I've kept my purple "coalition oui, pour un parlement qui marche" sign in the window all these months. At this point it's my solemn duty to drag out Harold MacMillan's quote about "events, young man events!" But it seems pretty thin gruel.