New Democratic Party Leader Jack Layton speaks during an emergency debate in the House of Commons on Monday, November 2, 2009.Sean Kilpatrick
"With the NDP riding high in the polls ... isn't it also time for the media to take the party more seriously and give them a bit more coverage?" - Norman Spector in his post from today
According to the invaluable ThreeHundredEight.com the NDP are averaging 15.9 per cent in the most recent set of polls that would give the NDP 29 seats if an election were held today.
To put 15.9 per cent support in historic perspective, there have been 16 federal elections since Tommy Douglas led the party into the 1962 campaign. The NDP have averaged 15.59 per cent support in those 16 campaigns - essentially exactly where they are today.
They have done better than 15.9 per cent support nine times, worse seven times.
In Tommy Douglas's four campaigns as leader, he averaged 15.42 per cent support (albeit with fewer parties splitting the vote than there are today).
In the three campaigns that Jack Layton have led the party, they have averaged 17.10 per cent meaning they are still trailing that level of support (though are trending back to that level in recent weeks)
In other words, their current support is as average as the NDP have ever been from a historic perspective and if anything, they are trailing where Jack Layton has had the party during his tenure.
What makes this fact interesting (at least to me) is that while the Liberals are at an all time low in popular support in the polls (and no - none of this should be taken as a statement that all is good in Liberal poll land), the NDP have really not been the beneficiaries at all of our swoon. In fact, 15.9 per cent would be Jack Layton's second worst result as leader. Even the polls from last week that had the NDP at 19 per cent would only be a 1 per cent gain over the 2008 election which given the current state of the Grits, is hardly reason for NDP celebration.