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The more opposition, the merrier

Globe and Mail Blog Post

I don't for a moment believe the implicit message out of the Conservative camp yesterday that, from a Tory perspective, the NDP is now of equal concern as the Liberals. As unthreatening as Stephane Dion has looked on the campaign trail thus far, the Liberals remain - outside of Quebec, at least - by far the greatest threat to the Tories, if only because of what remains of their brand.

That doesn't mean, though, that as promised the Tories won't spend more time this week attacking the New Democrats - or that it's not a smart strategic move.

While an NDP rise could cost the Tories a couple of seats in B.C., and maybe even a seat or two in Atlantic Canada, it would mostly do them a service by splitting anti-Conservative votes in ridings where the Liberals are competitive. If the Conservatives actually thought that attacking the NDP would cost it many votes - most of which would go to the Liberals - you can bet they'd bite their tongues. In that case, we might even get Stephen Harper lavishing praise on Jack Layton ("While I disagree with the NDP leader, I admire his principles...").

The thing is, refusing to attack the NDP actually delegitimizes it as a serious opposition party - thus prompting stridently anti-Conservative voters to choose the Liberals over the New Democrats on election day for fear of wasting their votes. Putting Layton front and centre, on the other hand, might convince some left-of-centre voters that he's no less a player than Stephane Dion.

As an added bonus, it pushes along the narrative that Dion is running such a pathetic campaign that the rest of the opposition pack is catching up to him. That this narrative isn't really borne out by the polls, which moved only very slightly last week, is well beside the point.