I can understand why Michael Ignatieff doesn't want any part of the Liberal leadership just yet. But his decision to see the leadership campaign out - which is almost certainly the reason behind Stephane Dion sticking around, as opposed to a power grab on Dion's part - does not augur well for the success of a coalition government.
From Ignatieff's perspective, there would be all kinds of risk in taking over right now. Anointing him without a convention - presumably by a caucus/executive vote - would irritate a significant chunk of his party, and raise questions about the legitimacy of his mandate. It would allow the Conservatives to accuse him of a sense of entitlement, which is one of the problems with his public image in the first place. And most importantly, he could do immeasurable harm to his chances in the next election - assuming he leads his party into it - by trying to navigate the early stages of an unwieldy coalition in the midst of an economic crisis.
That Dion will stay at the helm may well prevent the coalition from ever getting off the ground (which might suit Ignatieff just fine). Although the NDP and the Bloc seem to be more comfortable with Dion than with Ignatieff, the public is unlikely to be as enthusiastic. If the Conservatives play this right - which in their case largely means not overplaying their hand - it should be a huge boon to their PR efforts.
For the Liberals, though, this thing being dead in the water may now be the best prospect. Dion might only be a caretaker prime minister, but five months is a long time - long enough, certainly, for the coalition to give the appearance of having no coherent idea of how to manage the economic crisis, to splinter in at least three directions, and to re-establish the Conservatives as an attractive option.
I'm not saying it would be impossible for Dion to navigate stormy waters, and this certainly helps (at least in terms of perception). But I maintain that his track record suggests that he's just about the worst possible person to try to build and maintain a consensus among three parties. If you don't believe me, ask the many, many former cabinet colleagues - people normally obsessed with paying your dues - who declined to support his leadership bid in favour of a former New Democrat, a provincial politician and a guy who'd spent most of his adult life living outside the country.
