Analysis of today's Globe/CTV poll, including our editorial on the subject, has focused almost entirely on what it means for Stephen Harper. That makes sense, since the whole point was to try to figure out where he's, why he's there and how he can move forward. But if anyone should really be sweating this thing, it's Jack Layton.
What Layton did in his first three years on the job is nothing short of remarkable. The NDP was half-dead when he took it over early in 2003, having gotten just 8.5% of the vote in the previous election and barely keeping party status. By 2006, he'd more than doubled both the New Democrats' share of the popular vote and its seat count. And for a while, he even got to affect policy - calling many of the shots while the Liberals clung to minority status under Paul Martin.
As I went on about last week, Layton's success came because he was able to turn the NDP into the destination of choice for disgruntled Liberals - much more so than the Conservative party ever was. But there's been a sense of late that he's hit a wall, and this poll proves it. And the poll bears that out - telling us that more soft Liberals are now considering shifting their votes to the Conservatives than to the NDP.
The NDP is in a tough spot. On one hand, it's got by far its strongest leader since Ed Broadbent, and it seems to have settled in at around 17% - better than a lot of people would've expected. But it may need another change of gears to get much further.
Unless they can somehow lure Gary Doer to go federal, which is improbable at best, I suspect New Democrats will be lamenting Layton soon after he's gone. After all, their benches aren't exactly overflowing with talent. But considering there's always been a large contingent uneasy with having a showy urban populist at the helm, you have to wonder how long it'll be until the knives come out - especially if the trends we're seeing in this poll hold up in the next election.
