I am not sure what made me more cranky today reading John Ibbiston's election speculation story or going through the hell of airline travel to the U.S. At least after completing the latter their is a pleasurable escape awaiting. The former follows the annual ritual dating back to the commencement of minority governments in 2004 of predicting the inevitable election.
John is a top-notch writer and person. He is the third wise-hand to peddle the election 2010 story in 2 days. Norman Spector and Don Newman gave many of us New Year's indigestion with their vote prophecies yesterday.
Such is the state of minority politics in Canada that smart hands risk manage seconds after the umbilical cord commencing a new year has been cut. The lads may be right that a vote could happen this year but wasn't there a take it to Vegas confidence that Canadians were destined to the polls in 2009?
Never go against your elders but let me indulge in some youthful exuberance. First, two days into 2010 the only ones talking about an election are not politicians. When they make noises then maybe it should be taken more seriously. Though as we saw in 2009 election threats can turn into empty taunts quickly.
The one predictable thing about the minority governments of the last six years has been unpredictability. From Belinda Stronach's defection to the Liberals to Jack Layton's recent support of the current government's last few confidence motions nothing happened as was forecast.
One thing prognosticated about with great vigor last year was the departure of Gilles Duceppe. Not to recycle old garbage but with each passing year it becomes a greater probability. Call this one of the what-if's that changes the dynamics on a possible 2010 showdown. Heck if the wise men are allowed them, the what-ifs that is, so is the young buck.
Common political folklore would have you believe that the PM only gets his jollies from smashing his opponents to smithereens. But what few appreciate is the guy likes to govern and arguably does it well. With Canada hosting three of the world's biggest and most visible events, Olympics, G-20, G-8 between now and July Stephen Harper will have much on his plate. He also takes his ongoing management of economic recovery seriously. Steady governing can be as politically advantageous as kicking sand in your opponent's face.
Good on Ibbitson, Spector and Newman for dragging us into the debate. They did their jobs. Question is are you ready to take their wager? My flight is about to take-off so I am taking a trip back to a certain holiday peace.