Rising risks for the Grits

Share

The Globe report by Daniel Leblanc and Campbell Clark about the Conservatives' new willingness to "ask for the order" and campaign for a majority is a signal of rising risk for the Ignatieff Liberals. Even though fewer than one in four voters really want a majority Conservative government, the Tories' new message has potential to help their cause for the first time since Stephen Harper first took office. Here's why.

First, the argument that "stable government" is needed draws on the fact that most people don't want an election, but the Liberals sound like they might force one every few months. What's more, the stated reason for going to the polls, the straw that breaks the will of the Liberals to keep this Parliament intact, is supposedly uneven or insufficient unemployment insurance benefits. At the depth of the recession, this wasn't much of a rallying cry. With each sign that the economy is improving, it's weaker still.

Second, the reason why lots of voters haven't wanted to give the Conservatives a majority was a fear that they were fire-breathing right-wing radical activists - and that, given too much rein, they would impose all kinds of obnoxious reforms. By pushing the need for "stability," the Conservatives are subtly reinforcing what many voters have been sensing about them: They may lack grand ambitions, and their agenda is fairly typical Canadian vanilla-flavoured centrism. To further underscore this point, they argue that if there are any radical agendas to fear, they come from a potential hybrid of Liberals, New Democrats and BQists.

Finally, asking for a larger mandate has the advantage of placing the Conservatives on the offensive. They need to avoid an election that's about whether to toss the government out, and this kind of message helps their troops and candidates extol their virtues and their opponents' weaknesses, rather than constantly getting drawn into responding to criticisms of their record.

The new approach is smart politics by the Harper Tories. It may not work, but it's well worth their effort to try it.

In turn, Michael Ignatieff faces increasing pressure to avoid the "perpetual instability" rap. He must signal soon whether he foresees a need for an election this fall. If he plans to try to cause one, he will need a stronger theme than EI rules. And, sooner or later, he will need to make an inspiring case for a Liberal government, and a more compelling case for removing the Conservatives.

If the Harper Conservatives succeed in establishing the ballot question as "Conservatives….should they be given a majority?" a lot of political opportunity will have been lost for the Liberals. Sooner would be better than later for that new Liberal campaign frame.