While I would never claim that blogs are a proper proxy for public opinion, there is something striking about the response amongst Conservative bloggers to Maxime Bernier "going rogue" yesterday on climate change.
Surfing over to bloggingtories.ca (the Conservative blog aggregator), there are three things that struck me about the reaction to Bernier's comments:
1. The reaction was unanimously positive. Not a single blogging Tory criticized Bernier for being off message, never mind being wrong on the substance. For a group that has defended Stephen Harper right-or-wrong for the last four years, unanimously defending someone who is so clearly "off message" is a big deal.
2. The reaction wasn't just positive, it was reverentially so. To the extent the blogging Tories are representative of grassroot Conservatives (a questionable assertion) and to the extent I was right yesterday that this was all about Bernier laying down tracks for future leadership ambitions then congratulations Mr. Bernier, mission accomplished.
3. Stephen Harper has a problem on his hand. Since the day Harper became leader, he has done a deft job avoiding social issues like abortion and euthanasia because the issues both divide his own party (caucus and membership) and the majority of his party is not aligned with broader public opinion. This is different. Much as Harper may try, he can't avoid climate change as an issue. While climate change has been a defensive issue for Harper since he was elected in 2006 (i.e. try to manage it away), there is now a real push within his party through Bernier's initiative to turn aggressive climate-change denial into something that defines the Conservative Party's core values and beliefs. As a Liberal I obviously think this is a wonderful idea. I have a funny feeling Stephen Harper will think otherwise. He may have a real internal problem on his hands and I would expect this wedge to be exploited mercilessly in the months to come.
For a flavour of where the Conservative grassroots' head is at on this, a sampling of Conservative blogs from yesterday:
Maxime Bernier takes on climate-change 'alarmism' - "I agree with Mr. Bernier and applaud his courage to publicly buck the tide of public sentiment on the global warming issue. I believe there is good reason to maintain a healthy skepticism and open mind on the issue of global warming and the degree to which it may be influenced by our lifestyle."
You had me at Bonjour - "So, wicked awesome of Maxime Bernier shake the crap out of the Quebec concensus on climate change. "
Bernier Breaks Parliament's Silence on Climate Theory - "If Mad Max manages to stand up through the storm that is likely to blow his way, many disenfranchised Canadians who do not right now see their champion in Parliament may begin to look his way as their voice inside the House."
My Friend Maxime Bernier is a... - "The reaction from the chicken littles has been of course hysteria. Keep up the good work Maxime. One day you will be HM PM."
(Photo: The Prime Minister and Mr. Bernier tour a college science lab in St-Georges de Beauce in October. Mathieu Belanger/Reuters)
