According to a poll published on the front page of today's La Presse, the Conservatives could end up with 183 seats, well above the 155 needed for a majority government.
The Conservatives are at 43 per cent, 18 points ahead of the Liberals. In Québec, the Bloc still leads, at 35 per cent, the Conservatives are at 30 per cent and the Liberals are at 17 per cent -- their worst score since October 2007. It's in Ontario where the Conservatives are making their greatest gains, according to this poll. Relative to February, the Liberals have fallen to 31 per cent from 43 per cent, and the Conservatives have increased to 44 per cent from 32 per cent.
Who knows whether this poll is accurate and, if it is, whether the trend will continue. But if it's followed by one or two more with similar results, watch for full-scale panics to break out in the streets of Montréal, Toronto and British Columbia's Lower Mainland.
In the short-term, therefore, this poll is not good news for the Conservatives. If the trend holds up, however, it is the end of Stéphane Dion's leadership. And if you want to understand why that may be in the cards, a good place to begin is to reflect on what the two main leaders had to say about their fragile second language skills yesterday:
1. Stephen Harper:
"My friends, for me a prime minister should speak French," Mr. Harper said, calling French "the founding language of this country."…
"Quebeckers have listened to me and listened to me passionately, even though I have difficulty, that I continue to have difficulty mastering your language," he said in French.
The admission won applause and chants of "Harper, Harper, Harper" from the partisan audience.
It is important to speak French to represent "Quebec men and women," he said, "not just in Quebec, not just in Ottawa, but also on the international stage. A prime minister has the duty to represent your pride and your history, and that is what I have tried to do for 2 1/2 years," he added. "And it has been a great privilege for me to be your prime minister."
2. Stéphane Dion
Stéphane Dion says he has a hearing problem that prevents him from catching the "music of the language," and this is one of the reasons he struggles in English.
His understanding of English, he says, is better than his "delivery."
"I have a hearing problem and it may be linked to that," he said in a wide-ranging interview yesterday, the first day of the federal election campaign.
