If you want to understand why the Bloc has been lukewarm to Michael Ignatieff’s proposal in regard to the power to prorogue – and why Prime Minister Stephen Harper doesn’t appear to be having any anxiety attacks – a new poll conducted from Jan. 14 to 24 by CROP, one of the province’s leading pollsters, would be a good place to start.
Satisfaction with the government since the last poll in October has declined by one point, from 37 per cent to 36 per cent ... the dissatisfied have increased by 1 per cent, from 58 to 59 per cent ... notwithstanding the Liberal campaign against prorogation…. On the ballot question, the news is no better for the Liberals – the Ignatieff effect has worn off … the Liberals are at 24 per cent ... which is what they obtained under Stéphane Dion in the last election … the Conservatives are 21 per cent, which is where they have stood since September, 2009.
Michael Ignatieff is seen as the best PM by 20 per cent of Quebeckers, the same as in October. His slide began in April 2009, when he was seen as best PM by 45 per cent of Quebeckers. Stephen Harper is also treading water at around 24 per cent, which is where he was in September 2009. Jack Layton is at 28 per cent.
On the ballot question, the Bloc is down 3 points to 34 per cent, which is where it stood last September and 4 points less than its result in the 2008 election. The NDP is up 5 points, from 12 per cent to 17 per cent. Among francophones, the Bloc is at 40 per cent, the Conservatives at 20 per cent and the Liberals are at 19 per cent. The regional breakdown is important: the Conservatives are at 15 per cent in Montreal but at 33 per cent in the Quebec region, where they won their seats in the last election and where the Bloc now stands at 24 per cent and the Liberals are at 22 per cent.
In Montreal, the Bloc and the Grits are neck-and-neck – 32 to 30 per cent. In the rest of Quebec, the Bloc is at 39 per cent, the Conservatives are at 25 per cent and the Liberals are at 16 per cent.
(Photo: Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press)
