In developing Canada's climate change policy, the Harper government is waiting on the United States -- as both Jeffrey Simpson and today's Globe editorial point out (the former sceptically and the latter more positively). I'm with the editorial board on this one, though it could be a long wait, in light of President Obama's health care woes. It's one thing for the European Union to take the lead when it comes to combating climate change. However, if there's one thing we should have learned from the complete failure of the Chrétien, Martin and Harper governments to reduce carbon emissions, it's that our word, and even our signature on international agreements such as Kyoto, is meaningless if we get too far out ahead of the United States in an area of continental interdependence.
An impossible sell during the Bush days, that proposition is a bit easier now that our friend "Barack" is in the Oval Office. (BTW, my guess is that the two leaders agreed early on to call each other by their first names, though I suspect the President expected that to be in camera, not on camera!)
The same lesson applies to Afghanistan. Under Jean Chrétien, we jumped into our first ground war since Korea in order to dodge George Bush's invasion of Iraq. But, with the Americans preoccupied elsewhere and most of our NATO allies showing their expertise at dodging bullets, our combat mission has been under-resourced from the beginning. We've taken a huge number of casualties and, as the President suggested at his presser with the Prime Minister, this has all been without any coherent strategy.
For Mr. Obama, Afghanistan was the good war, in contrast to Iraq. However, like Mr. Chrétien, one senses that his heart was never really in it other than as a political dodge. Now, with only 39 per cent of Americans supporting a war that is even more unpopular among Democrats, we could be in for quite a long wait before the President decides on his course of action.
Wide-scale voting fraud has complicated Mr. Obama's decision. And, as the Washington Post reports today, he's not too eager to bite the bullet:
[Afghanistan commander]McChrystal has finished drawing up his request for what is expected to be thousands or tens of thousands of additional trainers and combat troops for Afghanistan, but he is awaiting instructions before submitting the request to the Pentagon. Senior defense officials said that, in effect, McChrystal has been asked to delay submitting the request.
NATO allies are growing restless, with Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi of Italy being the latest to declare that his nation had begun planning to "bring our young men home as soon as possible." Meanwhile, military officers who are fighting the war have been painting an increasingly bleak picture.
Last night in London, General David Petraeus, the overall commander of troops in Afghanistan who devised the surge in Iraq, said that the current security situation in Afghanistan was equivalent to the most violent period in Iraq. At the same forum, his British counterpart said that Afghans were losing patience with NATO's "failure." And, notably, one of his commanders yesterday told the Independent that many in the Taliban enemy ranks have " done nothing wrong" and that their grievances must be addressed.
Some Canadians may be frustrated that we must wait on the Americans on issues such as climate change and Afghanistan; a few of our compatriots may even be humiliated. However, as Doug Saunders reports in today's Globe, President Obama has come to office with a clean slate, and he appears fully prepared to reconsider defence issues, including missile defence, which has been the sacred cow of previous administrations.