Manitoba Premier Greg Selinger hung on to his job Sunday, boldly declaring that a party and government caucus riven with turmoil over his leadership were now more united than ever. But that may be more wishful thinking than reality.
Mr. Selinger edged out challenger Theresa Oswald by a mere 33 votes – out of a total of 1,490 – on the second ballot of a historic party convention called by the Premier himself when five of his most senior ministers quit cabinet in a provocative display of no-confidence.
The NDP Leader stood for the job, creating a situation in which a sitting Premier was forced to campaign for a position he already held – an unprecedented occurrence in Manitoba politics. And this, just three-plus years after leading his party to its largest majority in history. His government, however, has fallen sharply in popularity since it raised the provin- cial sales tax, something Mr. Selinger had promised in the 2011 election campaign he would not do.
"I think we're even more united now that we've been through this process," Mr. Selinger told delegates after the vote. "It steels you. It makes you stronger and it will make us more united as well. Let's go home feeling positive about this experience."
Several of Ms. Oswald's supporters were seen leaving the convention hall in tears. Others grumbled about the pointlessness of the entire exercise.
Ms. Oswald was among the five ministers who resigned last November and her campaign gave voice to those in the party – and the NDP caucus – who have lost faith in Mr. Selinger's ability to govern. Steve Ashton, who finished second to Mr. Selinger at the party's leadership convention in 2009, was the third candidate; he dropped off the ballot when he finished last after the first round of voting.
During candidate speeches earlier in the day, the Manitoba Premier stumped on his fiscal record, saying Manitoba was forecast to lead the country in economic growth in 2016 – an election year. There was no mention of the one-percentage-point hike in the PST that he announced in 2013 – from 7 to 8 per cent.
The public's reaction to the flip-flop was swift and harsh and the New Democrats have since sat at historic lows in opinion polls. Last fall, several caucus and cabinet members told the Premier in one-on-one meetings they felt he should step aside in an effort to assuage the public's wrath. He refused. That intransigence prompted Ms. Oswald and her cabinet colleagues to resign in protest.
The embattled Premier forged on and entered the two-month leadership campaign with the support of 16 out of 28 caucus members who endorsed a candidate. He also received an important endorsement on Friday, the opening day of the convention, from Ovide Mercredi, former national chief of the Assembly of First Nations. Mr. Mercredi was also elected as the new president of the Manitoba NDP at the convention – a move that will certainly help Mr. Selinger solidify his grip over the new party executive.
Still, the other two candidates had the backing of 12 NDP caucus members – six each. More important, the party's top election strategists and backroom minds supported Ms. Oswald and are believed to be disinclined to help the Premier out when organizing for next year's provincewide vote gets under way.
While there was optimistic talk on the Premier's part that New Democrats emerged from the leadership process stronger than ever, that remains to be seen. No one is certain, for instance, what will happen to the five ministers who quit cabinet and who have been effectively banned from caucus. Will they even finish out their terms now that it's evident Mr. Selinger is remaining on the job? While their decision enraged some New Democrats, there was broad support for what they did, as well.
Ms. Oswald received an enthusiastic response from delegates Sunday morning when she said there were Manitoba New Democrats who were going to vote for the Conservatives out of frustration with the current leadership. "Some feel the NDP has stopped fighting for them," Ms. Oswald said, "that we've walked away from them."
Mr. Selinger will now have to deal with matters such as his governing style and worries that his backward handspring on the PST is going to bring about electoral Armageddon for his party. He believes an increasingly strong economy will make voters nervous about bouncing his government in favour of the Conservatives. The NDP plans to table a balanced budget in 2016.
Now that the campaign is over, Mr. Selinger said it was time to take care of a few things ignored during the race: laundry and house-cleaning were at the top of his list.
"Things have to get done that haven't been attended to in a while, but once we get it back together we'll be right back out there serving the people of Manitoba," he said.
That must include mending the deep wounds this leadership battle created.
Gary Mason