A handful of eastern provinces are warning Prime Minister Stephen Harper to brace for a battle if his Conservative government attempts to force a controversial Senate reform plan through Parliament.
The provinces, including Quebec and Nova Scotia, insist that transforming the Senate into an elected body with term limits is tantamount to a constitutional change that would require their blessing.
“Quebec should not let the federal Parliament act alone to modify the contract that gave birth to Canada,” said Benoît Pelletier, architect of that province's current position on Senate reform.
Mr. Pelletier, a constitutional scholar who was intergovernmental affairs minister before leaving politics in 2008, said this is “not just a legal question, it's a big political issue.”
Nova Scotia Premier Darrell Dexter, meanwhile, suggested his province would not give up historical guarantees that allocate it 10 Senate seats.
“You never say never, but I would not go into negotiations to come out with less,” he said. “Reform of the Senate is fundamentally a constitutional issue that would have to be negotiated with the provinces.”
The federal government revealed this week it would revive its plan to reform the Senate after Parliament resumes in March, by which time the Tories will have appointed five new senators and amassed added voting clout.
While the federal Liberals, NDP and Bloc Québécois have all opposed Mr. Harper's Senate bills, it's not clear if one of the parties might buckle in a highly visible political vote on whether the institution should be changed.
Even if such reform bills did pass, experts say they would almost certainly be challenged in the Supreme Court of Canada by a number of provinces, particularly in the east.
In Atlantic Canada, where the provinces enjoy clout in the Senate disproportionate to their population, a leading political scientist warned against “imposed” changes. In addition to Nova Scotia, both New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador, which have 10 and six Senate seats respectively, have insisted on a provincial role in changing the Senate.
“Any fundamental change requires local leadership, it requires local legitimacy so people don't feel this is being imposed,” said Stephen Tomblin, associate professor of political science at Memorial University in St. John's.
Other provinces were more circumspect, but the proposal received scant praise.
A spokeswoman for Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty said he was sticking with four-year-old comments that the best Senate reform would be abolition. A spokesman for Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach, whose province is seen as home of the Senate reform movement, welcomed the idea but would not comment without hearing more detail.
Manitoba, which prefers abolition, has set in motion a plan for consultative Senate elections, which could dovetail with the federal plan.
“The position of our government is that the Senate should be abolished, but since the Prime Minister has indicated a willingness to appoint elected senators, our view is Manitobans should have a voice,” said Erna Braun, chairwoman of an all-party special committee on Senate reform.
In November, her committee released a report recommending that elections be held and nominees forwarded to Ottawa. Alberta has a similar system and has been holding elections for would-be senators for years.
Winners of two of those votes were eventually appointed to the upper chamber. Saskatchewan passed legislation in 2008 to elect senators, but a vote has not yet been held.
Analysts say that provincial opposition in smaller provinces could stem from premiers' fear that their already weak national voice will be further limited if newly influential senators appear on the scene.
“I don't think you'll get any premier that'll admit this, but … an elected senator will pose a challenge to a sitting premier about who actually speaks for a province,” said Peter McKenna, associate professor of political science at the University of Prince Edward Island in Charlottetown. “In some ways it is an issue of power and responsibility.”
With reports from Campbell Clark in Ottawa and Karen Howlett in Toronto
