Sharp drop in poll shows Kathy Dunderdale is no Danny Williams

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When is a 51-per-cent approval rating worrying? When you're following in the footsteps of the phenomenally popular Danny Williams.

Kathy Dunderdale took over as interim Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador in November, less than one year before the fixed-date election this October. At the time her Progressive Conservative government was riding high in the polls and few expected her to face a serious challenge.

But support has fallen sharply in the wake of several highly publicized criticisms of the party leadership by Mr. Williams.

Although the Tories were still well ahead of the other parties in the latest poll, by Halifax-based Corporate Research Associates, political observers are starting to ponder the unthinkable. After Mr. Williams bestrode the party and province like a colossus, could his successor lead the Tories to defeat?

In a CRA poll released Tuesday, the Progressive Conservatives had the support of 57 per cent, a drop from 73 per cent in March and the party's lowest backing in six years. Ms. Dunderdale's personal popularity was pegged at 51 per cent, down from 64 per cent three months ago. The numbers are still comfortably in majority territory but the trend is unforgiving.

The most obvious factor influencing such a sudden change is the widening chasm between the province's current and former leaders.

In late March, Mr. Williams pulled out of a dinner in his honour, at a convention that was also to anoint Ms. Dunderdale officially as his successor. He pleaded scheduling problems and then offered a cryptic "ask the Premier" as his explanation. At the time a source said he was upset the province had not offered stronger backing for his former communications director's appointment to an offshore regulatory board.

Around the same time, the former premier was reportedly aggrieved that he no longer had cellphone numbers for sitting cabinet ministers. And late last month Mr. Williams criticized the provincial government for being, in his view, too hasty in refusing a subsidy for an American Hockey League team he was backing.

In spite of his criticisms and the Tory slide, it remains a long shot for the other parties this autumn. Liberals had the support of only 22 per cent, up from 18, in the CRA poll. The NDP showed more growth, more than doubling their support but still coming in at only 20 per cent. Their leaders had approval ratings in the mid-teens.

But the other parties were invigorated by the new numbers, which Ms. Dunderdale played down the results as a "snapshot in time," likely influenced by the federal election.

There's one possible wild card that could help the Tories turn around momentum just in time. Prime Minister Stephen Harper has pledged a federal loan guarantee for a proposed hydro development on the Lower Churchill River. And this week Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Peter Penashue, the lone Tory in the province, said the details could be finalized by the end of the summer. That would be only weeks before the Oct. 11 election.

The poll of 400 adult Newfoundland and Labrador residents was part of Corporate Research Associates' quarterly surveying of Atlantic politics. It was conducted from May 11 to May 28, 2011 with results for the province accurate to within 4.9 percentage points in 95 out of 100 samples.