Shifting voter loyalties play into NDP's hands in Manitoba race

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The same Winnipeggers who put Greg Selinger's NDP solidly over the top Tuesday night voted for Stephen Harper's Conservatives on May 2. Strange, don't you think?

Maybe not. In fact the ease with which voters shifted between parties may be the secret to Mr. Selinger's win in Manitoba.

It may also be the secret to Liberal Premier Robert Ghiz's win in PEI Monday, and to Conservative premier Kathy Dunderale's expected victory when Newfoundland and Labrador go to the polls next Tuesday. Premier Brad Wall's Saskatchewan Party is also expected to win in November.

And the latest polls now suggest that Dalton McGuinty's Liberals will be returned in Ontario Thursday.

Across Canada, it appears, voters are looking for pragmatic, cautious government to steer them through tense and confusing times.

And if the major opposition really has nothing substantially new to offer as an alternative, people appear to be settling on letting the guys in charge stay in charge.

Paul Thomas, emeritus professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, believes that the political motto of his province is: "We want a government that works better and is affordable."

That is, "we want results, particularly in health and poverty and crime and education, but we don't want to pay a huge amount for it," he explains.

Though lacking his predecessor Gary Doer's charm, Greg Selinger has mostly hewed to this socially progressive but fiscally responsible line. As Mr. Doer's finance minister, Mr. Selinger produced 10 balanced budgets before the recession hit and he became Premier. The NDP has amassed a broad coalition of support that includes aboriginals, labour and immigrants without alienating middle class voters in suburban Winnipeg.

Hugh McFadyen's Conservatives, on the other hand, grappled with ideological contradictions. That party's rock-ribbed conservative base lies in the rural ridings of the province's south and southwest, but victory depended on capturing Winnipeg.

He tried to straddle the divide with policies that mostly mimicked the NDP's but were rhetorically tougher on issues such a crime and energy. Didn't work.

On election night, though Mr. McFadyen's rural base stayed solid, a majority of Winnipeg's 31 seats went NDP. Since Winnipeg commands the majority of the 57 seats in the Manitoba legislature, that was that.

A few months ago, all this seemed far from inevitable. After Mr. Harper won his majority in part by just owning the province of Manitoba, taking 11 of the province's 14 federal seats, the NDP appeared headed for defeat provincially rather than for a fourth consecutive mandate.

The same was true in Ontario, where Conservative challenger Tim Hudak appeared set to topple Mr. McGuinty. But that was before Greece threatened to slide into the Aegean, taking Europe's banks with it. The headline on the front of this week's Economist magazine simply reads: Be afraid.

Fear could be what is driving voters back into the arms of incumbents. That, and the knowledge that the opposition isn't proposing anything other than to also muddle through with as much spending as the government can afford without piling up too much more debt.

Whether federally or provincially, people appear determined to go with experience. It is a testament to how narrow is the ideological divide in this country that they have no problems voting Conservative one day and NDP the next. Provided, that is, their leaders appear to know what they're doing.