With almost three-quarters of British Columbians prepared to abolish the HST in next year’s referendum and Premier Gordon Campbell enjoying an approval rating of only 9 per cent, the B.C. Liberals would be soundly beaten and swept from office were an election held today, according to seat projections based on a recent poll from Angus-Reid.
The B.C. New Democrats, under leader Carole James, have gained three points since July and seven points since the May, 2009, election. They have the support of 49 per cent of British Columbians and lead in all demographics. The B.C. Liberals have sunk to 24 per cent support – a loss of three points since July but a staggering 22-point drop since the election.
Mr. Campbell’s Liberals have retained only about 55 per cent of those British Columbians who voted for the party last year. A quarter of their supporters have moved over to the NDP while 13 per cent, or almost one third of the Liberals’ lost vote, have swung over to the B.C. Conservatives.
The Greens have the support of 13 per cent of British Columbians, a number that has held steady throughout the year. It is, however, a gain of five points over the last election. The party does best among women and young voters and is running second on Vancouver Island. The B.C. Conservatives, who are at 8 per cent support, find most of their base in the Interior and among older voters with higher incomes.
The scandal over the sale of BC Rail and the public furor over the HST have cost the Liberals support in every part of the province. Mr. Campbell has lost almost twenty points in Metro Vancouver and Northern British Columbia, and is down more than 25 points on Vancouver Island and in the BC Interior, where the party’s level of support is below 20 per cent.
The NDP’s growth has been more modest, with gains of ten points on Vancouver Island and in the Interior. In no part of the province does the NDP have less than 44 per cent support, with the party reaching 60 per cent on Vancouver Island. But Ms. James has been having trouble of her own due to internal party bickering over the expulsion of a critical MLA from caucus, and only 27 per cent of British Columbians approve of her performance as leader.
B.C. NDP Leader Carole James, shown outside the Legislature in Victoria on Oct. 5, 2010, holds a commanding lead over Premier Gordon' Campbell Liberals.
Nevertheless, if an election were held today the B.C. New Democrats would likely win 72 of British Columbia’s 85 seats and be elected to its first majority government since Glen Clark’s electoral victory in 1996. The party would sweep all 36 ridings on Vancouver Island and in the BC Interior, and win 30 seats in and around Vancouver and six in the north.
The B.C. Liberals would likely be reduced to only 10 seats and form the Official Opposition. Mr. Campbell would not lead his party in the legislature, however, as he would lose his riding of Vancouver-Point Grey to the NDP challenger. Nine of the party’s seats would be won in Metro Vancouver, with the other seat win coming in the north.
The B.C. Greens stand likely elect their first MLA in a riding north of Vancouver, while two independents would also be sent to Victoria.
Luckily for the B.C. Liberals, the next provincial election will most likely not be held until 2013. This gives Mr. Campbell the next three years to work on avoiding his party’s worst electoral result in a quarter century.
Éric Grenier writes about politics and polls at ThreeHundredEight.com
