The furious ground wars in Ontario's election campaign

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Amid discernible fatigue following federal and municipal elections in the past 12 months, Ontario's provincial campaign seems to be flying largely under the radar. But that masks furious ground wars already happening across the province, as the parties try to carry enough regions to find a pathway to government.

In the remaining 20 days of campaigning, there may yet be a mass movement toward one of the three contenders. But in the meanwhile, it helps to consider this less a battle for the hearts of Ontarians than several battles for the hearts of Ontarians.

TORONTO

The Combatants:

Even though the Liberal fortress collapsed federally, with Conservatives and New Democrats reaping the benefits, this is supposed to be a three-way race. Coming in, Dalton McGuinty's party held all but four of Toronto's 22 seats; it needs to keep most of them to have much chance at another majority government.

The Battle so far:

Toronto looks like a disaster right now for Tim Hudak's Progressive Conservatives, who invested much pre-election effort. Some combination of antipathy toward mayor Rob Ford and discomfort with the angry face Mr. Hudak put forward in opposing the Liberals' proposed tax credit to help skilled immigrants find work seems to have reinforced left-of-centre leanings. If that doesn't change, the Tories could get shut out of the city for the third straight election.

The X Factor:

If Jack Layton's halo effect lasts another three weeks, it will be strongest here. That could allow Andrea Horwath's NDP to take a few seats away from the Liberals, while creating vote splits that help the Tories.

GREATER TORONTO AREA

The Combatants:

With the exception of one or two ridings, this is between the Liberals and Tories. Whichever of those parties has carried the 905 belt has won each of the past four elections.

The Battle so far:

Too close to call. Both sides are trying to show they understand the struggles of commuters living what Mr. McGuinty likes to call "hectic, just-in-time lives" – the Liberals with public transit and social service commitments, the Tories with pledges to make life more affordable. The tax-credit debate might have hurt the Tories among the many suburban immigrant communities, but they were confident it would play well among all but the most recent arrivals.

The X Factor:

Even more than elsewhere in the province, candidates are trying to fight through voter apathy. That makes "get out the vote" efforts all the more important – something at which the Conservatives have excelled in recent federal campaigns.

THE NORTH

The Combatants:

Typically, most Northern Ontario ridings swing between Liberals and New Democrats. But the Tories will almost inevitably win Nipissing, where former North Bay mayor Vic Fedeli is running for them, and boldly predicted heading into the campaign that they'd combine with the NDP to sweep the Liberals right out of the north.

The Battle so far:

Although it's hard to gauge such a vast and under-populated region, it appears the Liberals are indeed in deep trouble, with policies such as the Far North Act, which protects half the Far North from development, adding to a sense of alienation from the government. Seeking to capitalize, Mr. Hudak and Ms. Horwath have both agreed to participate in a northern-issues debate. That Mr. McGuinty has declined the invitation isn't helping his already battered image here.

The X Factor:

The further from Queen's Park, the more local candidates matter. Personally popular Liberal incumbents like Thunder Bay's Michael Gravelle and Sudbury's Rick Bartolucci are running heavily on their own names, rather than Mr. McGuinty's. Will that be enough to buck the trend?

EAST

The Combatants:

Other than downtown Ottawa, these are Liberal-PC battles. If they can't win the rural ridings between Toronto and the nation's capital, the Tories aren't winning government.

The Battle so far:

There are few unique issues here, unlike elsewhere in the province. But the Tories believe this is where their pocketbook politics is working best – particularly among aging populations in smaller towns. And right-leaning voters who stayed home when John Tory was leader seem more inspired by Mr. Hudak.

The X Factor:

The Liberals would dearly love to make an issue of the Landowners Association – a libertarian group tied to renegade Conservative MPP Randy Hillier, which has its tentacles in at least a couple of eastern ridings, and which they think could scare off more moderate voters.

SOUTHWEST

The Combatants:

Here, too, Liberal-held rural ridings are mostly the Tories' for the taking – particularly several where popular incumbents aren't running again. But the NDP is pushing hard in the Windsor area, and in London.

The Battle so far:

With some of the highest unemployment in the country, by far the biggest issue is jobs. The Liberals are wrapping themselves around their green-energy policies, while the Tories say high taxes and over-regulation are stifling growth. The Liberals still seem to be losing that argument, but not as badly as they were a few months ago.

The X Factor:

This is where groups that oppose wind energy are making most of their noise. Depending how wide their reach, that could be making life even more difficult for the Liberals.