The Globe and Mail

Liberal leadership candidates are emerging in striking numbers for a job that's not supposed to be worth much.

Within hours of Stéphane Dion's announcement last week that he would step down, 11 individuals, including front-runners Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae, expressed at least a passing interest in the job. Even if some of the potential candidates are only musing aloud to raise their public profile, that's enough to demonstrate that the prize - while perhaps tarnished - is not the poisoned chalice it first appeared to be.

The national Liberal Party was significantly diminished on election day, losing seats, dropping to historic lows in the popular vote and watching competitors eat into its traditional ethnic vote. It is also having trouble raising funds and must find ways of breaking out of its Atlantic and urban core.

But Liberals also feel a turbulent economy is their friend, because it will hurt the newly elected minority Conservatives as they start their second term. And if the Tories falter, the Liberals are the opposition alternative to replace them, provided they elect the right chief, stay unified during the leadership campaign, and find ways to renew their identity.

"The Liberal brand is still quite a viable option as a rallying point for voters who either want to change government at some point in the future, or find a government that reflects their centre, centre-left point of departure on most policy issues," said Bruce Anderson, president of the polling firm Harris/Decima.

"People showed in the immediate runup to the campaign that they were equally open, for all intents and purposes, to voting Conservative or voting Liberal. By the end of the campaign they weren't, and the campaign is what decided that."

While the party dropped 19 seats on election day, it still won 41 of Ontario's 106 constituencies, and remained competitive with the Tories, or in some cases the NDP, in dozens of others. Even though the Liberals won only 13 Quebec seats, they are taking comfort in the fact that the Tories suffered an election-campaign debacle in the province. The Liberals finished second in 32 Quebec ridings while the Conservatives came second in 23.

Aside from Mr. Rae and Mr. Ignatieff, New Brunswick MP Dominic LeBlanc announced this week that he intends to carry the cudgel for Liberals who want to get their party back on the centrist path. Others who have expressed some interest include MPs Martha Hall Findlay, Denis Coderre, David McGuinty, Ruby Dhalla and UjjalDosanjh, as well as former justice minister Martin Cauchon. Gerard Kennedy doesn't appear very interested, butheavyweight John Manley has not ruled himself out. Only one major dream candidate, Frank McKenna, has said no.

"There's one factor here and only one factor and that's getting an electable leader," said a senior Liberal, who asked to remain unidentified. "This is a good chance for us, but we cannot fumble the ball."

Unless Mr. Manley were to jump in, the headliners will be Mr. Rae and Mr. Ignatieff, and the key issue between them will be whether the party decides to fight the Harper Tories from the moderate centre - as Mr. Ignatieff's people propose - or from the social side, as Mr. Rae probably would.

Mr. Rae argued in 2006 that he should have the edge because, as a former NDP premier, he could attract the NDP and Green vote.

This time around, supporters of Mr. Ignatieff say their man will play up his electability quotient and demonstrate to Canadians that he is much more than just a dry academic.

"I think Michael is on his way to becoming Mike," said John McKay, a Liberal MP and an Ignatieff supporter.

"He doesn't mind talking about how bad the Leafs are."

Mr. Rae must find a way of both convincing people his economic record was not as bad as advertised and providing reassurances that things would be done differently in Ottawa. He ran almost entirely on his undeniable political-performance skills in 2006, but a recession now would likely lead more Liberals to question how Mr. Rae will be positioned if they entrust him with the role of attacking Mr. Harper on his management in a recession.

Some supporters, such as former Ontario MP Gar Knutson, say Mr. Rae should simply explain his record when it comes up: Ontario faced a deep and protracted global economic recession when he was premier, from 1990 to 1995, and he didn't cause it.

Mr. Knutson said that in tough times, Canadians lean to a little more economic interventionism.

What some Liberals fear is that - as in 2006 - Mr. Rae and Mr. Ignatieff won't get along, poisoning party unity and allowing for a third candidate to come up the middle, in the same way Mr. Dion did.

That kind of outcome is the best hope for individuals like Mr. LeBlanc. But it will be trickier to pull off in 2009 because Liberals opted for a third-place compromise candidate in Mr. Dion last time, and lived to regret it.

Many Liberals also feel that a crowded field is not a good idea because it robs face time from the eventual winner.

Maurizio Bevilacqua, MP for Vaughan, Ont., says the way to limit the field (he was one of the original 11 who ran in 2006 before dropping out to support Mr. Rae) is to run a convention similar to that of the U.S. Democrats.

"Let's get serious. Let's use the next six months to showcase the person who wants to take on Harper."

The size of the field may also be limited by financing as the debts incurred in 2006 may chase many away.

Party officials are tussling over the rules, with some arguing that spending limits should be set as low as $200,000 to allow for more entrants.

Others, including supporters of Mr. Ignatieff and Mr. Rae, suggest limits of $2-million or more.

Isabel Metcalfe, a former Liberal Party candidate who supported Mr. Rae in 2006, said she's hoping for a "fast and cheap convention."

"People in the Liberal Party of Canada are going to have to get used to the fact that we are in opposition," she said.

"I think it is beginning to penetrate quite thoroughly into everybody's head. We are in opposition. We have a lot of work to do. We have had a fairly serious erosion of our base."

Some say the party needs to develop new ideas and policies along with selecting a new leader.

Stephen Clarkson, a University of Toronto political scientist, argues for a "thinkers conference" like those that have taken place when the party was in the wilderness in the past.

Unfortunately, the Liberals do not have the luxury of time in this minority government era, he said. "They can't do what they should do."

But Liberals are bullish that the difficult economy will erode confidence in the Tories during this time, perhaps lessening the need for such a rethink.

University of Windsor political scientist Heather MacIvor argues that, heading into their second term, the Tories under Mr. Harper may have reached their zenith. She argues that the government will eventually face a difficult choice of hiking taxes, cutting spending or running a deficit.

"That's not going to be pleasant for them because they said they wouldn't do it [run a deficit]," she said. "A nimble Liberal leader would be able to take advantage of that."

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POSSIBLE CONTENDERS

BOB RAE: MP, ONTARIO

Age: 60

Strengths

A strong parliamentary performer with lots of experience

at the federal and provincial level; rarely gets into trouble.

Challenges

As the former NDP premier of Ontario, Mr. Rae will have to persuade Liberals to elect him leader during times of economic turmoil in spite of being widely criticized for his administration of the province during the recession of the early 1990s.

MICHAEL IGNATIEFF: MP, ONTARIO

Age: 61

Strengths

An accomplished and internationally renowned former journalist and professor, Mr. Ignatieff is a strong orator who could attract supporters as a new face on the federal scene.

Challenges

Despite his previous effort at the Liberal leadership, Mr. Ignatieff has been an MP for only 2½ years and has been criticized for judgmental lapses, including his original - and later recanted - support for the invasion of Iraq. He also spent most of his adult life outside Canada before returning to run in the 2006 election.

DOMINIC LEBLANC: MP, NEW BRUNSWICK

Age: 40

Strengths

Mr. LeBlanc is youthful, fluently bilingual and a long-time Liberal, which may stand him in good stead with those who won't vote for Mr. Rae because of his NDP background or for Mr. Ignatieff because of his length of time outside Canada.

Challenges

Overcoming the sense that the party cannot, for a second time running, opt for an inexperienced leader as a compromise choice.

JOHN MANLEY: LAWYER

Age: 58

Strengths

Mr. Manley is a former deputy prime minister under Jean Chrétien as well as a former finance minister. He played a key role in Canada's response to the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and is an economic conservative, which might attract a large following as a recession nears.

Challenges

Many Liberals are upset with Mr. Manley for the role he played in heading a Conservative-appointed panel that made recommendations on how long Canada should stay in Afghanistan. He is also identified with the Chrétien old guard.

MARTIN CAUCHON: LAWYER

Age: 46

Strengths

Mr. Cauchon is a former cabinet minister who helped usher in same-sex-marriage laws. He is experienced and would bring a reasonably high profile to the race.

Challenges

He will be identified by some as a member of the party's old guard. He has also been away from politics for four years.

GERARD KENNEDY: MP, ONTARIO

Age: 48

Strengths

Part of a new generation of Liberals, Mr. Kennedy is nonetheless experienced, having run for the leadership last time around and for the Ontario Liberal leadership that elected Dalton McGuinty. He is also a former Ontario education minister.

Challenges

Despite a lengthy involvement in politics, he lacks experience on the federal scene. He may also get some of the blame for helping to elect Stéphane Dion in 2006 after delivering the majority of delegates to him.