Canada's Finance Minister Jim Flaherty reacts during Question Period in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa February 14, 2011.
Chris Wattie/Reuters
Interactive
Three ridings to watch as the federal budget drops
From Monday's Globe and Mail (Includes correction)
Published
Last updated
Tuesday's federal budget is a make-or-break moment for the Conservative government. In the runup to a possible election, the Globe and Mail visited voters in three key ridings – one each in Ontario, British Columbia and Newfoundland – to determine which issues are resonating, and why
-
Wade Boland on Signal Hill, overlooking St. John's on March 19, 2011.
St. John's South-Mount Pearl
The riding
A Liberal-held riding of about 82,000 that extends south from the capital, encompassing the downtown core, suburban families and fishing villages being reborn as bedroom communities.
Why it's important
The St. John's area was once a Tory bastion. But then former premier Danny Williams launched his “Anything But Conservative” campaign. Sitting cabinet ministers stumped for other parties' candidates and an anti-Tory mood swept the province. Now, with Mr. Williams gone, the Tories hope to re-take seats in Newfoundland and Labrador.
Liberal Siobhan Coady, who won in 2008, will be no pushover. She's received high-profile support recently with visits by Opposition Leader Michael Ignatieff and veteran Grit Bob Rae. Observers say she has been active and visible in the riding. “This is a classic case where somebody doesn't win by a large margin and is in constant campaign mode,” said Alex Marland, assistant professor of political science at Memorial University. “My impression is that she started campaigning for re-election as soon as she was elected.”
Issue that resonates
A sense of financial concern is evident among many voters: gas prices and heating costs weigh heavily, as does limited housing for low-income seniors and the shrinking purchasing power of pensions.
Wade Boland wonders which face the Conservatives will show in the federal budget. Hard-line fiscal conservatism? Or will Jim Flaherty throw a bone to the less fortunate? “It seems like the poor people are getting poorer,” said Mr. Boland, 56 and undecided. He hopes consideration is being given to the NDP idea of removing federal tax on heating oil. “It's about time for [government] to look after the people who are not so fortunate,” said Mr. Boland, a pensioner who worked 37 years at CN in both blue- and white-collar jobs.
Underlying issue
Distrust of Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his leadership style. It's something the Tories will have to overcome.
“He's doing what he wants, he's not listening to the people at all,” said Chris Worthman, 65, a former Bell Aliant worker who retired to Petty Harbour. “I got a call from one of Harper's people in Ottawa … and I said ‘screw Stephen Harper and screw the Conservatives.'”
Oliver Moore
-
Bangle store owner Vinoo Natalwala looks deject as talks about the current retail business situation in the federal election ridding of Vancouver South March 18, 2011.
Vancouver South
The riding
Stretches north of the Fraser River, running east-west from central Granville Street to the city's boundary with suburban Burnaby.
The predominantly-residential riding has a strong ethnic constituency.
Close to 45 per cent is Chinese-Canadian and about 15 per cent of South Asian descent.
It's affluent, but the riding also has a good chunk of lower middle class voters to the east.
Why it's important
No riding appears more ripe for the plucking.
The three-term incumbent, Liberal stalwart Ujjal Dosanjh, had the fright of his life on election night, 2008.
It took two recounts before Mr. Dosanjh – former NDP premier and federal Liberal cabinet minister – was declared the winner by a scant 20 votes.
Momentum is all on the side of Conservative challenger Wai Young, who is back for another run.
Mr. Dosanjh professes not to worry, saying he was nearly brought down last time by lack of voter confidence in Liberal leader Stéphane Dion.
Issue that resonates
The government's “tough on crime” approach is thought to play particularly well with conservative Chinese-Canadian voters.
The steady “drip, drip, drip” of petty, often unreported crime wears people down, says Ms. Young.
Ex-cop and provincial MLA Kash Heed says there is always a lot of response to crime issues in the riding. “It's one of those near the top of every list.”
Underlying issue
The economy. Vancouver South's once-thriving business sector has been hit hard by the recession. Closed shops are common.
Behind the counter of the large – and empty – Palika Gift House, Vinoo Natalwala says he's never seen business so bad.
Rod Mickleburgh
-
Paul Medeiros of the Guelph Food Technology Center poses in one of their food labs in Guelph, November 15 , 2010.
Guelph
The riding
Although it has its share of commuters to Toronto and nearby Kitchener-Waterloo, the fast-growing city of Guelph (population 115,000) has its own identity and economy. The University of Guelph is one of the biggest local employers, and it has the feel of a college town. But about a quarter of its jobs are in manufacturing, many with auto-parts manufacturer Linamar, and it remains the capital of Ontario's agricultural sector.
Why it's important
Guelph is one of only two ridings in Southwestern Ontario currently held by the federal Liberals, through MP Frank Valeriote. But the Conservatives came within 2,000 votes of taking it last time and consider it part of their map to a majority government.
Guelph has an environmental streak that also makes the Green Party competitive here. “There's a large hippie culture – people who are very Earth-driven,” says teacher Phil Lajoie.
The Tories haven't won many converts on the environment, but they might get credit for Guelph's economic recovery. “I've been very happy with Harper,” says taxi driver Sean O'Brien. “I won't say I'm back to my prerecession numbers, but I'm getting close.”
Issue that resonates
“I haven't heard a lot on the federal budget,” says Lloyd Longfield, president of Guelph's Chamber of Commerce, “but there are issues that people are tuned in to.”
Those largely involve support for the city's emerging knowledge economy, in fields such as biotechnology and food security. While there's much appreciation of the Tories' corporate tax cuts, there are calls for more investment in research and development, and for help with attracting skilled workers.
Underlying issue
Perhaps the best news for the Conservatives is worry about the fragility of economic recovery.
Business owners express concern about Mr. Ignatieff's promise to roll back corporate tax cuts, which are seen as a competitive advantage that's especially useful to manufacturers coping with a high dollar's impact on cross-border business.
“There's a lot of places that have closed down in the last 10 years,” Mr. Lajoie says.
Adam Radwanski
Editor's Note: The federal Liberals hold two ridings in Southwestern Ontario: Guelph and London North-Centre. Incorrect information appeared in print on Monday and in an earlier online version of this story. This version has been corrected.
