Though the Conservatives and Liberals have seen their numbers remain virtually unchanged over the last two weeks, enough support has shifted to the Grits and New Democrats to give these two parties a plurality of seats in the House of Commons, were an election held today.
According to ThreeHundredEight.com’s updated seat and vote projections for The Globe and Mail, the Conservatives have the support of 33.8 per cent of Canadians, down slightly from the 34 per cent support Stephen Harper’s government enjoyed two weeks ago.
While Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals have taken some advantage of the Tory slip, edging up 0.2 points to 29.2 per cent support, it is the New Democrats who have taken the largest step forward. Jack Layton’s team has gained half-a-point and now has the support of 16.1 per cent of Canadians.
The Bloc Québécois is at 9.7 per cent nationally, while the Green Party is at 8.6 per cent support, down from 8.8 per cent on Nov. 1.
With these national levels of support, the Conservatives are projected to win 127 seats, down two seats from the last projection and down 15 from their present standing in the House of Commons. The Liberals are projected to win 98 seats, three more than two weeks ago and 22 more than they currently hold. The New Democrats, meanwhile, would win 30 seats, down one from the last projection.
More importantly, the Liberals and New Democrats could combine for a total of 128 seats, one more than Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s party is projected to win. The implications for a coalition government or a rocky Conservative minority government, as well as the importance of the 53 seats likely to be held by the Bloc Québécois, are clear. If the voting intentions of Canadians do not shift significantly, the Parliament formed after the next election stands to be even more volatile than the one currently sitting in Ottawa.
Regional Breakdown
The race continues to be very close in seat-rich Ontario, where the Conservatives now have the support of 37 per cent of voters compared to 36 per cent for the Liberals. Both parties have seen their numbers rise since the beginning of November, but the gap has now shrunk to only one point. The New Democrats have been stable, going from 16.2 per cent to 16.3 per cent, while the Greens have dropped back into single-digits. With these results, the Conservatives would likely win 47 seats in the province, while the Liberals would take 46 and the New Democrats 13.
In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois maintains a solid lead with 38 per cent, down slightly from the 39.3 per cent support in enjoyed two weeks ago. The Liberals remain steady in second place with 23.5 per cent support, followed by the Conservatives at 16.7 per cent and the NDP at 13.2 per cent. That represents growth of more than a point for the New Democrats, though they are projected to win only one seat, unchanged from two weeks ago. The seat totals for the other parties are also unchanged, with 53 going to the Bloc Québécois, 15 to the Liberals, and six to the Conservatives.
The last of the three battleground provinces, British Columbia, is becoming a closer contest. The Conservatives retain the lead with 33.9 per cent, but that is a loss of support of 1.3 points. The New Democrats have dropped a point-and-a-half and now have the support of 25.5 per cent of British Columbians, followed closely by the Liberals at 25.2 per cent – an increase of almost two points for Mr. Ignatieff. At 12 per cent support, the Green Party is unlikely to get Elizabeth May elected in the province, but the Conservatives should elect 17 MPs. The NDP is projected to win 10 seats here, while the Liberals would take the remaining nine.
The Conservatives have maintained virtually insurmountable leads in Alberta and the Prairies with 59.5 per cent and 46 per cent support, respectively. The Liberals, however, have gained almost two points in Alberta and are projected to win one seat with 19.4 per cent support. They also lead in Atlantic Canada with 38.4 per cent, down slightly from two weeks ago but still good enough for 20 seats. The Conservatives, with 31.2 per cent, are likely to win eight in the region.
ThreeHundredEight.com’s vote and seat projection model uses a rolling, weighted average of polling results and includes the latest data from polls taken since Nov. 1 by Léger Marketing, Ipsos-Reid, EKOS Research, Nanos Research, Harris-Decima, and Abacus Data . Polls are weighted by sample size, age, and records of pollster accuracy, with larger and newer polls given greater weight.
Éric Grenier writes about politics and polls at ThreeHundredEight.com
