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Analysis shows Tories would benefit most from rebalancing plan Add to ...



The latest formula to rebalance the House of Commons would give Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia new seats to lessen the underrepresentation in the House of fast-growing urban areas, while ensuring Quebec’s share of seats does not drop below what its population warrants.

Independent electoral commissions will decide where and how to incorporate the new seats. But a quick look at the electoral map suggests that the Conservatives would win most of them, further bolstering their already comfortable majority.

Alberta

The largest ridings in Alberta can be found in Calgary, Edmonton and the petroleum-rich far north. In the next election, the Tories would probably take all six new ridings.

Largest ridings:

Peace River

138,010(C)

Calgary West

132,155(C)

Calgary-Nose Hill

130,945(C)

Calgary Northeast

129,020(C)

Edmonton-Spruce Grove

128,950(C)

Edmonton East

128,200(C)



British Columbia

Vancouver Island and the Lower Mainland are where much of the growth in British Columbia is to be found. All the parties are competitive in this region. But the Conservatives could probably count on taking three of the five new seats up for grabs. The NDP and the Liberals might each take one.

Largest ridings:

West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea-to-Sky-Country

129,250(C)

Nanaimo-Cowichan

125,160(NDP)

Abbotsford

124,515(C)

Vancouver Centre

123,705(L)

Fleetwood-Port Kells

123,245(C)

Ontario

Much of the population growth focuses on the outer suburban communities surrounding Toronto. The Tory breakthrough here on May 2 secured their majority. They could win nearly all of the 13 new seats.

Largest ridings

Brampton West

170,420(C)

Oak Ridges-Markham

169,645(C)

Vaughan

154,215(C)

Bramalea-Gore-Malton

152,700(C)

Halton

151,940(C)

Quebec

If history repeats itself, both of the two seats Quebec would receive would be won by the NDP, which took most of the province on May 2, including these large ridings in and around Montreal

Largest ridings

Montcalm

122,825(NDP)

Vaudreuil–Soulanges

120,395(NDP)

Chambly–Borduas

116,925(NDP)

Brossard–La Prairie

113,985(NDP)

Jeanne-Le Ber

112,863(NDP)

So if an election were held tomorrow with the new rules in place, and history repeats itself, the Conservatives could win in the range of 20 of the 26 new ridings.

Follow on Twitter: @JohnIbbitson

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