A price tag for part of the Conservatives' law-and-order agenda is about to be made public — and the number is in the billions, far higher than any previous estimates.
The Parliamentary Budget Officer forecasts the cost of implementing just one of the Tories' many tough-on-crime bills is between $7-billion and $10-billion over the next five years.
Kevin Page's complex investigation into the budget implications of the so-called Truth in Sentencing legislation — also known as the two-for-one sentencing law — is expected to be made public early next week.
Sources familiar with the document told The Canadian Press the study concludes the provinces will have to pick up about three-quarters of the costs, while Ottawa pays the rest.
The cash-strapped governments of Quebec and Ontario will be particularly hard hit.
“The provinces have walked into this with their eyes closed,” said Craig Jones, executive director of the John Howard Society of Canada.
The report is likely to provoke a showdown between Mr. Page's office and the government over the credibility of the analysis. Ottawa has always maintained that much of the increased costs could be absorbed by shuffling prisoners to jails where there's extra space, or by more double-bunking — putting two prisoners in one cell.
Critics call that practice “chicken-caging” and say it would be a betrayal of Canada's international commitments to maintain corrections standards.
In an interview Tuesday, Public Safety Minister Vic Toews said $90-million has been set aside over this year and next to implement the law at the federal level and expand existing facilities if need be.
“We're not exactly sure how much it will cost us. There are some low estimates, and some that would see more spent — not more than $90-million.”
The provinces should not see any increase in costs, Mr. Toews added, noting the impetus for the legislation came mainly from provincial attorneys-general.
Bill C-25 came into effect in February, and targets the length of criminal sentences. It aims to end the common practice of giving criminals a two-for-one credit for time spent in remand — incarceration while suspects are waiting to be dealt with by the courts.
Under the new law, judges are required to count the time spent in pre-trial as straight time, in most cases.
As a result, many criminals will likely be in jail or prison for far longer than before, putting a strain on crumbling infrastructure and tight budgets.
“The risk is that longer periods of time in federal custody will put additional pressures on an aging physical infrastructure and potentially increase risks to the safety and security of staff and offenders,” a recent report from Correctional Service Canada warns.
But the practical effects of the legislation have never been thoroughly examined in public. The government, for example, has refused to release its internal analysis of impacts on prison populations and costs.
“It's always difficult to estimate what the impact is going to be,” Mr. Toews said.
“Quite frankly, I'm not so sure that there will be a significant increase in our population because essentially we're dealing with the same people over and over again,” he said.
Mr. Toews said they've been gaming the system to take advantage of two-for-one credits, using bail terms to pop in and out of remand to cut down on their time in custody.
“Now, they'll stay put without intermittent releases on bail.”
But the $90-million set aside by Ottawa will not be nearly enough, says the analysis done by the budget office.
Mr. Page devoted a third of his staff and six months to building statistical models, and double-checked the results with outside experts, to arrive at his conclusions.
Mr. Page has butted heads with the government previously, notably over deficit and spending projections issued by the Finance Department.
