The excitement surrounding the NDP leadership race pales in comparison to the headline-grabbing contest for the Republican nomination in the United States. But what if the New Democrats adopted U.S.-style primaries to choose their next leader?
The following is a work of fiction. It imagines that the NDP holds primaries in each province, allowing party supporters – and not just members – to cast their ballots to elect 1,000 delegates to the NDP convention in Toronto. Delegates are awarded to each candidate proportionately, based on their share of the vote in each of the primaries. Polling data, endorsements, and fundraising figures have been used to determine each candidate’s vote share in each province:
Hoping to give its local issues national prominence, Prince Edward Island was the first province to hold its NDP primary in mid-January. Accordingly, the eight leadership candidates criss-crossed the island in the week running up to the vote in order to start the primary season off on the right foot, while a few pundits in the national media bemoaned the unfair importance of being assigned to such a small province. But with only four delegates at stake, any victory won in PEI was always going to be a moral one.
With former PEI NDP leader Herb Dickieson campaigning with him, Thomas Mulcair won the first NDP primary with 43 per cent of the vote, outpacing rival Brian Topp (28 per cent) by a wide margin. It solidified Mr. Mulcair’s position as one of the frontrunners, while Paul Dewar (13 per cent) and Peggy Nash (eight per cent) cheerfully shrugged it off and said they were looking forward to the next two primaries in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.
Following shortly on the heels of the Jan. 29 debate in Halifax, the primaries in these two provinces were the first real tests of the campaign with a combined 49 delegates at stake. While Ms. Nash got the nod from former NDP leader Alexa McDonough, the well-funded Topp campaign hit Nova Scotia with newspaper and radio ads. Yvon Godin, meanwhile, campaigned hard for Mr. Topp in his native New Brunswick.
When the votes were counted, Mr. Topp emerged as the outright winner in New Brunswick, taking 57 per cent of the vote. Mr. Mulcair finished second with 17 per cent and Mr. Dewar, with 12 per cent support, was the only other candidate to crack double figures. Nova Scotia, however, was a much closer race. The CBC could not declare a winner until late into the night, but Ms. Nash eventually squeaked by with 31 per cent of the vote against Mr. Topp’s 29 per cent. Mr. Mulcair finished with a disappointing 19 per cent. A moment between Mr. Topp and Mr. Mulcair at the Halifax debate was blamed for his poor showing, but Mr. Mulcair reiterated that his campaign was focusing on the later primaries in Quebec and Ontario.
Romeo Saganash, however, failed to secure any delegates in these first three primaries and, also struggling to build a nationwide organization, withdrew from the leadership race.
All eyes turned to the west when, on Feb. 14, the primaries in Alberta and Saskatchewan were held a few days after the energetic debates in Saskatoon and Edmonton. With his history in the province and the support of former premiers Roy Romanow and Lorne Calvert, Mr. Topp was widely expected to take Saskatchewan. How Alberta would swing was far less certain, but with the support of Edmonton MP Linda Duncan, Mr. Dewar put a lot of effort into getting a good result in the province.
Saskatchewan broke as expected, with Mr. Topp taking 51 per cent of the vote and Mr. Mulcair finishing second with 25 per cent. Alberta was a far closer contest, with Mr. Topp narrowly edging out the others with 35 per cent of the vote. Thanks in part to strong labour support in the province, Ms. Nash turned out to be Mr. Topp’s biggest competitor at 25 per cent, while Mr. Dewar received 19 per cent support, his highest of the primary season so far.
