There are children in grade school today who weren't born when Canada entered the era of perpetual minority government. For seven years, federal politics has tottered through unstable parliaments, endless election speculation and legislation that doesn't get anywhere.
In that time, the House of Commons has become more powerful, as a Conservative government is forced to obtain the consent of at least one progressive opposition party before legislation can be passed. But the Prime Minister's Office has grown more powerful as well, as a mood of near-perpetual crisis strips cabinet members of their last shreds of autonomy. The political atmosphere in Ottawa is foul, and important national priorities languish, for lack of agreement on how to move forward.
A recent Nanos poll showed that more Canadians are uncomfortable than are comfortable with the thought of giving Prime Minister Stephen Harper a majority government. Nonetheless, the Conservatives believe they can secure that majority by targeting specific vulnerable ridings across the country.
If they succeed, many fear Mr. Harper will impose a radical conservative agenda. He won't, and he couldn't even if wanted to. The truth is, ideology aside, Canada could use a dose of majority government right now.
Things get done
In 2005, the Liberals introduced legislation that would update the Copyright Act to take into account the arrival of the digital age, which had already been around for some time. Six years and three bills later, we're still waiting. At this rate, the digital age will be over before Canada gets a new act.
A majority government would allow the Conservatives to push through a copyright law, and much else: Refugee legislation would permit the detention of claimants who arrive en masse; senators would be elected to a single eight-year term; the gun registry would be toast. And maybe a majority would give the Conservatives the courage to take on some sacred cows: abolishing agriculture marketing boards that have left Canada frozen out of Pacific free-trade talks and stymied other trade deals; introducing an element of private-sector market discipline to public health care; forging closer trade and security ties with the United States.
But the Tories would need to be careful: Voters tend to punish governments that get too far ahead of the popular curve.
There is no secret plan
The enemies of Stephen Harper fear that he would be willing to get far, far ahead of the curve. They believe he harbours a radical social and fiscal agenda that he would unleash if given an opportunity: The right to abortion and gay marriage would be reversed; the Canada Pension Plan privatized; health care turned over to the corporations; the CBC stripped of its funding; safety and environmental regulations trashed – well, the sky would fall.
Not likely, believes Reg Alcock, a Liberal who served in Paul Martin's cabinet as Treasury Board president and now teaches at the University of Manitoba's business school. “Canadian governments are elected to serve all Canadians,” he observes, “and all of them tend to move toward the centre, because that is where the people are.” Mr. Harper's paramount desire to make the Conservatives Canada's new natural governing party will always serve as the best check on whatever rabid-right tendencies he might harbour.
Even if a federal government did attempt radical reform, bureaucratic inertia would act as a drag on change. The provincial governments hold an effective veto on most federal legislation; proposals that both Ontario and Quebec strongly oppose rarely make it into law. And the Supreme Court of Canada acts as a final brake on any government that attempts to run roughshod over the Constitution.
Proof that Canada truly is conservative
