The loss of a riding held by the provincial Liberals since 1985 in Monday night’s by-election is only the latest indication of Quebec Premier Jean Charest’s troubles. Released over the weekend, a poll conducted by Crop shows his Grits are on track for their worst electoral showing in over a half-century.
The survey of 1,000 Quebeckers taken between Nov. 17 and Nov. 22 puts Liberal support at only 23 per cent in the province. To put that in context, the party has never earned less than 33 per cent of the vote in a general election since Confederation.
With 38 per cent support, the Parti Québécois holds a commanding lead. The sovereigntist party is at 45 per cent among francophones and also leads in and around the city of Montreal with 35 per cent. The Liberals trail there at 26 per cent.
The centre-right Action démocratique du Québec has the support of 15 per cent of Quebeckers, and leads in the provincial capital with 36 per cent support, 11 points ahead of the PQ. Québec Solidaire is at 12 per cent, while the provincial Greens are at 10 per cent support.
Though only 16 per cent of Quebeckers are satisfied with Mr. Charest’s government, he alone is not the cause of the party’s lagging poll numbers. Nathalie Normandeau, a popular Liberal cabinet minister, would only nudge her party’s support up to 28 per cent were she leader, while Finance Minister Raymond Bachand would drag the Liberals down to 21 per cent.
This all adds up to a Liberal drubbing at the polls, with the Parti Québécois projected to win 83 seats based on an analysis of Crop’s survey results by ThreeHundredEight.com. The Liberals would likely be sent to the opposition benches with only 24 MNAs, the worst result for the party since 1956. The ADQ would take advantage of the Liberal weakness and elect 15 MNAs, while Québec Solidaire would increase the size of their caucus from one member to three.
The Liberals currently hold 65 seats in the National Assembly, compared to 52 for the Parti Québécois, four for the ADQ, and one for Québec Solidaire. Three MNAs also sit as independents.
But the potential exists for an even greater collapse of the Quebec Liberal Party. Though 72 per cent of Parti Québécois voters believe that Pauline Marois should stay on as leader, her stewardship has been questioned by some of the rank-and-file of the notoriously fractious party. Gilles Duceppe, leader of the Bloc Québécois in Ottawa, has often been touted as her natural replacement.
With Mr. Duceppe at the helm of the PQ, Crop found that fully 49 per cent of Quebeckers would lend him their support. The Liberals would be reduced to only 21 per cent, while the ADQ would see its vote drop to 11 per cent.
If these numbers held firm on election night, Mr. Duceppe would be handed a massive majority of 101 seats in the 125-seat National Assembly. It would be the Parti Québécois’s greatest electoral victory, one only surpassed in Quebec’s political history by Robert Bourassa’s Liberals in 1973.
Defeated in his own riding, Mr. Charest would lead his party to a tiny opposition of 15 MNAs, 12 of them elected on the island of Montreal. The ADQ would likely win seven seats in and around Quebec City while Québec Solidaire would take two.
It remains a hypothetical situation, however, as Mr. Duceppe has stated he intends to lead the Bloc Québécois into the next federal election.
That might be the only bit of good news for Jean Charest. Last week, his government narrowly survived a no-confidence motion and this week his party was handed a by-election defeat in Kamouraska-Témiscouata. As calls for an inquiry into corruption in the construction industry and party financing continue, it is unlikely things are going to get any easier for the beleaguered Quebec Premier.
Éric Grenier writes about politics and polls at ThreeHundredEight.com
