Will Liberal wave in New Brunswick sink Conservatives?

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It's the most interesting electoral battleground east of Quebec, because it's the one Stephen Harper's Conservatives can't afford to write off.

Uncompetitive in all but a handful of ridings in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland, the Tories came into this campaign with eight of 10 seats in New Brunswick – generally seen as the most small-c conservative of the Atlantic provinces. In the closest federal race in memory, whether or not they keep most of those could make a huge difference.

The good news for them: They still have at least a fighting chance in each of those eight. But only one or two of their incumbents (John Williamson in New Brunswick Southwest, and maybe Rob Moore in Fundy Royal) can be considered sure things, with the rest trying to fight back a Liberal wave across the East Coast.

Based on background conversations with organizers from different parties during a recent visit to New Brunswick, here are some factors that could decide whether the Tories hold their ground.

WHY THE TORIES COULD LOSE

Harper fatigue

New Brunswick may be less reflexively put off than its neighbours by the Conservative Leader. But it is still in a part of the country he once accused of a "culture of defeatism," and which favours a type of retail politics at which he does not excel. Weariness Canadians may feel toward someone in the Prime Minister's Office for nearly a decade is arguably amplified here.

Economic woes

Mr. Harper's pitch for stability at a time of economic turmoil is a tough sell in New Brunswick, which has experienced flat (at best) growth most years since the 2008-09 recession. Lack of opportunity for younger generations, in a province that has frequently had the country's highest youth unemployment rate, is a particular sore point.

Mr. Harper's advocacy for the Energy East pipeline, which would take oil from Alberta to Saint John, gives him a job-creating possibility to talk about (and got him something approaching public support from the province's powerful Irving family). But it may still be hard for him to overcome the frustration that has led to frequent changes of government at the provincial level.

Employment Insurance

It was no coincidence that Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau chose New Brunswick to announce his proposed changes to make it easier to collect EI, most notably by shortening the waiting period. Those promises are squarely aimed at seasonal workers, mostly in fisheries, upset by Mr. Harper's tightening of the system.

It is unclear if Conservative changes – including a requirement that applicants show proof of seeking work up to an hour from their homes, which Mr. Trudeau would repeal – have actually been enforced. But the mere threat appears to have done damage.

Francophone voters

The Liberals have long dominated the Tories with the francophones who make up roughly one-third of New Brunswick's electorate. That advantage may be more pronounced now because Mr. Trudeau's last name conjures memories of the prime minister who did more than any other to advance official bilingualism.

While that should help the Liberals in Moncton, the most bilingual of New Brunswick's three urban centres, it's especially a factor in the more rural ridings of Madawaska-Restigouche and Tobique-Mactaquac.

WHY THEY COULD HANG ON ANYWAY

The Liberals' provincial cousins

Officials on Mr. Trudeau's campaign concede there is no place where a provincial Liberal government has caused them more grief. Premier Brian Gallant's cost-cutting attempts to deal with the fiscal mess he inherited after taking office last year have upset seniors in particular, and even a recent climb-down on one of his most contentious policies – a nursing-home fee – seems unlikely to entirely mitigate that.

Mr. Gallant has done his best to keep a low profile during the federal campaign. But the Tories are not shy about reminding New Brunswickers that Dominic LeBlanc, the province's lone Liberal MP and Mr. Trudeau's lieutenant for Atlantic Canada, is one of Mr. Gallant's closest allies.

Vote-splitting

The New Democrats' resurgence in the polls earlier this year was mostly good news for the Tories here. Outside its lone stronghold of Acadie-Bathurst, the NDP has very little New Brunswick organization or history of success. While it does seem somewhat competitive in Saint John and Fredericton, Thomas Mulcair's party could mostly serve to help the Conservatives by drawing votes away from the Liberals.

Social conservatism

If Mr. Trudeau's unusually hard line against anti-abortion members of his own party costs him anywhere, it might be here. The province is home to a strain of older anglophone voters who might be inclined toward the Liberals on economic issues, but not social ones.

This phenomenon is not as pervasive as it is sometimes made out to be. But Conservatives and Liberals alike say it could be a factor among evangelical voters in a riding such as Tobique-Mactaquac, and among Catholics in Saint John.

Incumbency

Of New Brunswick's eight Conservative MPs, only Mike Allen in Tobique-Mactaquac opted not to seek re-election. That's a lower retirement rate than the Tories have had in other provinces, which is fortuitous since by their own admission they tend to play up their local candidates (and play down Mr. Harper) more here than in much of Central and Western Canada.

Not all MPs are equal in terms of their local pull. But someone such as Fredericton's Keith Ashfield, a popular former federal and provincial minister who recently endured a battle with cancer, could have more than the marginal impact for which local candidates are usually credited.