Former MP Christian Paradis speaks during Question Period in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa June 4, 2013.CHRIS WATTIE/Reuters
Since 2006, Christian Paradis has dominated the electoral competition in the Quebec riding of Megantic-L'Érable, securing nearly 50 per cent of the vote in each federal election.
Even at the height of the Lac-Megantic rail tragedy in July 2013, he was personally spared from most of the harsh criticism directed at the federal government.
Now, will his retirement from political life cost the Conservative party one of their five seats in the province to have survived the orange wave of May 2011?
Many of the riding's residents seem to think so.
"We voted for Christian Paradis, not for the party. His departure could turn the tide," said a young woman seated in a Lac-Megantic coffee shop, as her five companions nodded in agreement.
Across the riding in Thetford Mines, a businessman who declined to give his name struck a similar tone as he described the new Conservative candidate as a political opportunist.
"He was dyed red for 20 years, and now he sees Paradis leave and he turns blue?" said the man in his fifties, referring to candidate Luc Berthold's history with the Quebec Liberal party.
Berthold, who was also Thetford Mines' mayor from 2006 to 2013, declined multiple interview requests from The Canadian Press, as well as a request to accompany him while campaigning.
Berthold's NDP opponent Jean-Francois Delisle, who agreed to be shadowed, was fairly well-received by citizens during a campaign stop in Lac-Megantic's rebuilt downtown.
Delisle rarely missed a chance to repeat he is the only candidate from a party who has formally committed to financing the railway bypass sought by the mayor, Colette Roy Laroche.
"Thomas Mulcair clearly committed to make sure the bypass would happen according to the will of the population and the elected officials. I would have never gotten involved with the NDP without that," said the municipal councillor from Thetford Mines, who took a leave of absence in order to campaign.
"Are those empty words or will it get done?" asked 67-year-old resident Yvan Dostie, who said he voted NDP in 2011 and seemed ready to make the same choice Oct. 19.
He was not the only one to doubt the politicians' speeches.
Lac-Megantic's citizens are skeptical. They've heard countless promises since the rail tragedy of July 2013 that claimed 47 lives, destroyed their town's historic centre and soaked the ground with crude oil.
The residents are also concerned with more than just the bypass. The local economy is facing a labour shortage and is operating at less than full capacity, according to Pascal Halle, president of the region's chamber of commerce.
Another candidate, the Liberal party's David Berthiaume, seemed remarkably optimistic considering his party received a paltry 5.8 per cent of the vote in 2011.
In a phone interview, Berthiaume, who works in the green chemistry sector, promised to do more than just split the vote.
"People are reconsidering everything because Christian Paradis is no longer here," he said. "In my opinion there are a lot of what I would call red Tories here, Liberals who voted for the Conservative party. And I think they'll come back to the fold."
Berthiaume criticizes his NDP adversary for his "totally premature" and "totally irresponsible" commitment to fund the rail bypass in Lac-Megantic while the cost and viability of the project are still undergoing a feasibility study.
"I think these are vain promises, and I think people aren't fooled," he said.
Neither Berthiaume nor Delisle seemed to think their young Bloc Quebecois rival, Virginie Provost, will be a threat. Provost was unavailable for interviews.
A Bloc Quebecois representative said Provost was overwhelmed by full-time studies and a job in addition to campaigning.