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Will carriers get carried away with portability?

TELECOM REPORTER

The smug monkey in Telus Corp.'s new ad campaign assures consumers that life will be better if they move to the carrier with the "happiest" clients.

But the critter is being accused of stretching the truth. Virgin Mobile Canada believes its customers deserve the "happiest" title, and this week sent a letter to Telus asking it to prove the claim or withdraw the ads. Telus isn't backing down and will keep running the ads.

"We're confident in our claim we've got the happiest clients and are prepared to defend it in court," said Telus spokesman Jim Johannsson.

The Telus and Virgin Mobile antics highlight how carriers have already begun butting heads in anticipation of the arrival of portable wireless numbers on Wednesday. Because they will be able to keep their numbers if they move to a competitor, the country's 18.4 million cellphone customers will have one less reason to stick with their phone carrier,

The wireless phone industry is on pins and needles because the change is expected to make it easier to lose as well as win subscribers. Keeping customers satisfied becomes crucial. Within a year after the launch of wireless number portability (WNP), 850,000 numbers will have moved, according to a 2005 report from PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.

"The playing field's changed," said Andrew Black, chief executive officer at Virgin Mobile Canada.

The company's chief marketing officer, Nathan Rosenberg, said, "We think the battleground right now is on happiness."

The move to WNP wasn't the carriers' choice. Two years ago, the former Liberal government asked the federal telephone regulator to make it happen. The cellphone companies hired PricewaterhouseCoopers to come up with a plan for the industry. But the regulator decided in December, 2005, things weren't moving quickly enough and moved up the scheduled launch to this month.

Just as in other countries where portability has been introduced, analysts believe customer defections increase with WNP. A survey in October of more than 3,500 Canadians showed that 11 per cent said they were very likely to switch cellphone providers, while another 29 per cent said they were somewhat likely to make a move, according to Solutions Research Group Consultants Inc.

"Pent-up dissatisfaction in some segments is going to be a driver," said Kaan Yigit, president of Solutions Research Group.

Young adults shopping for bargains, and small and medium-sized businesses seeking to reduce their data bills could be among the switchers, Mr. Yigit expects.

Not everyone thinks the industry is about to enter an era of unprecedented upheaval. "The gloom and doom and resistance that had been out there for so many years initially, and the view of wireless portability as a scary thing by the wireless providers, may be too much Chicken Little," said IDC Canada analyst Lawrence Surtees.

To start with, higher subscriber turnover, known as churn, may be kept under better control. As a laggard in launching WNP, Canada has benefited from lessons learned in other markets, such as the United States, which made the switch in 2003. Canada's wireless rulers, Bell Canada, Rogers Wireless and Telus, have focused on signing up as many people as possible for long-term contracts, making it more difficult for them to leave.

Moreover, it's not exactly in the carriers' interests to start a price war that will send customers running, bills tumbling, and costs to acquire subscribers soaring. Instead, they will likely play up WNP-related deals in strategic areas.

Vancouver-based Telus, for example, has said it sees WNP as an opportunity to make inroads in the large business market in Central Canada. Bell has had a lock on that market because many businesses didn't want to lose their numbers.