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Dr. James Bellini is a Professional Futurist of the GFF. Contact him at JAMESDrbellini@aol.com, and read similar work at www.thegff.com.

Amongst Herman Kahn's many insights was a basic technique that remains an essential part of my analytical toolbox. Ironically, it is about thinking about the present.

The technique offers a valuable lesson for all senior executives charged with forming a realistic and valid view of the future environment for their business.

Most decision-makers suffer from the 'tyranny of received wisdom' — their opinions are shaped by generally-accepted beliefs that are either many years out of date or just plain wrong. It boils down to a simple rule of thumb: if everyone says something is true, go and take a second look. Closer scrutiny of the relevant statistics and factual evidence invariably demands revision of the current state of political, economic or social relationships and hence of where the future might be heading.

Consider the big players in the 21st century world economy. The G7 was the exclusive club of the 'seven biggest and richest' industrialised nations. When the Soviet Union collapsed, G7 members offered Russia a seat alongside them since perceived economic size made her an obvious candidate for top table status. But let's have another look at the real facts about the enlarged G8 — and the probable evolution of global power players over the next 20 years.

The latest figures from the IMF and WTO, adjusted for prices, put the Russian economy tenth in the world. World Bank studies put it sixteenth, smaller than Brazil, the Netherlands, Australia and South Korea. Meanwhile, two nations out of the top four economies on the planet don't even enjoy G8 membership. IMF statistics have China and India now standing second and fourth respectively in terms of GDP, mingling with the U.S. and Japan. And, to be picky, the richest people on Earth live not in G8 territory but in places like Switzerland or Norway.

A major cause of this warped view of the world is a failure to catch up with new realities. Most of the 20th century was dominated by those eight nations and their citizens expect front rank privileges. They believe nothing has really changed in how the numbers stack up. But now those numbers — when you take a second look — point to a radically changed global map over the next half century. The implications for every aspect of business strategy and public policy are profound.

The next 50 years will see a fundamental shift in the centre of gravity of the global marketplace away from the old G8. In particular, China and India will together grow to some 3 billion or more people. They will lead the emergence of a new and vast generation of Asian mass market consumers. Both countries will have a middle class larger than the entire population of most G8 countries — they probably already do. This new Asian group of affluent citizens will be hungry for the same consumer goods that boomed in the U.S., western Europe and Japan after world war two. Key world industries, as well as the global machine for advertising, marketing and distribution, will be transformed into Asian-oriented entities that speak the cultures and languages of a post-G8 world.

China, after many false dawns, will be the epicentre of this unprecedented upheaval. She will probably overtake the U.S. as the world's biggest economy by 2030. She is already the world's third biggest importer, ahead of France, Britain and Japan. She is second in oil consumption. She is the fastest-growing market for automobiles and is forecast to become the third largest car market by 2010. In areas like electronic components and fashion apparel she is growing at monumental speed.

But then, the future has a strange habit of re-inventing the past. In the mid-19th century India was the world's biggest economy and China — for centuries an economic giant — has an ancient tradition of technical innovation and bureaucratic excellence. Present realities tell us the 21st century has many surprises in store for the comfortable old world order.

It is only a matter of taking a second look.